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Global Development: Views from the Center

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July 20, 2007

Phase Zero: The Pentagon's latest big idea

Posted by Stewart Patrick at 04:11 PM

A new term has entered the national security lexicon, courtesy of the Pentagon. It's "Phase Zero." And it has some potentially troubling implications for U.S. foreign and development policy, particularly in Africa. Unfortunately, the concept isn't getting the attention that it deserves.

US Africa Command Pentagon MapThe Defense Department (DoD) spends countless hours drafting plans for potential wars. Each plan outlines specific missions and military requirements for discrete phases of war, from the run-up to hostilities (Phase 1), to the onset of military action (Phase 2), to major combat (Phase 3), to "post-conflict" stabilization (Phase 4), and then to the shift to civilian control (Phase 5).

More recently, the Pentagon got the idea that greater military attention to pre-conflict situations-preventive action-could pay huge dividends, by making it unnecessary to use U.S. troops around the world.

That’s where Phase Zero comes in. It implies that America's far-flung Regional Combatant Commands have a new military mission-eliminating the roots of instability and terrorism in the world's most dysfunctional countries.

The rationale for this new mission was spelled out in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review. The QDR argues that victory in the "long war" against terrorism requires bolstering weak and failing states so they can better defend their borders and territories and eliminate "ungoverned spaces" hospitable to America's enemies. Accordingly, the U.S. military should expand training of foreign security forces and cooperate with U.S. civilian agencies in engaging developing countries.

A centerpiece for this strategy is the newly announced Africa Command (AFRICOM), slated to begin operations in late 2008. According to the Pentagon, the command's primary mission will be "shaping" activities designed to ameliorate troubling trends before they reach a crisis, rather than traditional operations involving the use of force. To this end, AFRICOM will be an inter-agency operation. Although the commander will be a four-star general, one of his two deputies will be a senior U.S. foreign service officer, and the command will include many personnel from U.S. civilian agencies.

So what's the problem? Shouldn't we welcome U.S. military concern with preventing conflict and eliminating instability in weak and failing states? The danger in this scheme is that it puts the Pentagon in the driver's seat and threatens to militarize U.S. engagement with Africa. Interagency coordination is one thing, but assigning leadership for this integration to the Pentagon is a risky proposition -- as a recent Washington Post article makes clear.


What the Pentagon is calling "Phase Zero" sounds suspiciously like what some of us still quaintly refer to as "diplomacy" and "development assistance." Given the Pentagon's massive resources compared to civilian agencies, any "shaping" activities that emerge from AFRICOM are likely to reflect U.S. military priorities and give short shrift to broader political and developmental considerations. After all, DoD's primary concern in weak and failing states is to build the capacity of local security forces. Whether those forces are under effective and accountable civilian control is a secondary concern.

More generally, the U.S. military is wholly unequipped to expertly address the structural sources of underdevelopment, alienation and instability in target countries. Addressing such weaknesses will require a decades-long approach to governance and development, under the leadership of the State Department and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development and other civilian agencies -- with the military playing a subsidiary role.

Sec. of Defense Robert Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Peter Pace A centerpiece for this strategy is the newly announced Africa CommandThe impulse to consolidate all Phase Zero activities in the Combatant Commands is understandable. Unlike the State Department, which relies on country-level embassies, the several Commands provide an attractive platform for regional approaches. But as I pointed out in a recent book with Kaysie Brown, effective "whole of government" approaches to fragile states work best when the each of the "3Ds" -- development, diplomacy, and defense -- are given equal consideration. By giving the Pentagon responsibility for government-wide policy integration, AFRICOM risks undercutting U.S. public diplomacy while accentuating our image as a militaristic nation.

It also reinforces one of the most troubling legacies of the Bush administration: the outsourcing of U.S. foreign policy to the Defense Department. Since 9/11, the Pentagon has emerged as an enormous provider of economic, humanitarian, security, and counterterrorism assistance, not only in Iraq and Afghanistan but in dozens of African countries.

At its root, this unhealthy dynamic reflects a glaring mismatch between the authorities granted to Secretary of State to lead the country's global engagement and the meager resources actually allocated to the State Department and USAID to fulfill this mandate. The massive capabilities of the Pentagon exercise a constant gravitational pull, tugging away at civilian leadership of U.S. foreign policy. But the ultimate answer lies not in surrendering to this pull, but in struggling against it. The Bush administration and Congress must ensure that the civilian branch of government has the mandate, personnel, and resources needed to shape U.S. global engagement-in "Phase Zero" and beyond.

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Comments

Poverty, ignorance and perceived human induced inequality, rather than religious fundamentalism, are the major driving forces of terrorism. When Alwaheed, that Saudi born American businessman, was taken round the ruins of the World Trade Centre in 2001, he was devastated by the carnage but he cautioned that the causes of terrorism should be addressed. In reaction to the latter remark, the mayor of New York promptly returned the 10 million dollars Alwaheed had donated to re-build the destroyed centre.

To ensure global peace and development, a marriage between the 3Ds of development, diplomacy and defense should be effected in the ratio of 5:2:1. In other words, developmental efforts should far outweigh (almost double diplomacy and defense) the other two. Prosperity is certainly a better defense than militarization in any form. USA should lay less emphasis on military force and what USAID or donor programs can do for developing nations. It should rather use its clout to put pressure on leaders of the said countries to engage in genuine poverty alleviating programs. Despite the efforts of the Breton Woods institutions, USAID and other donor agencies, Nigeria, where I live, is worse off today, than it was 20 years ago. Ipso facto, a change of tactics to ensure a more prosperous, peaceful and terrorism free world is needed.

Posted by: Dr. Gabriel Ogah at July 24, 2007 10:55 AM

This is a thoughtful piece, but the newspeg is wrong. AFRICOM does not mean the US military will be "in the driver's seat" of US policy on Africa. The reason AFRICOM was created was to optimize DOD's contribution to the USG effort in Africa and achieve synergies among the 3 D's. USAID and DOS efforts will not change because of AFRICOM. But AFRICOM does create a regional platform for USG players to coordinate with each other on common goals--something that didn't exist before. AFRICOM will always defer to the developmental experts, offering up those unique military capabilities--logistics, construction, transport, etc--that can speed success.

Posted by: Pat Mackin at July 24, 2007 01:33 PM

There are no countries in Africa that provide even a potential threat to the security of the US and highly improbable that, even under the worst circumstances, any can provide a base for anti-American terrorists. The terrorists that threaten us have resided in Europe, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

We now have a base in Djibouti and our CIA has been actively involved in countering the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia, a coalition of militias that actually created some stability in the country. We talked Ethiopia into sending troops to Somalia to oust the ICU and we supported them with C130 gunships that killed hundreds ICU members fleeing to Kenya. Ostensibly, we did this because we believed that the ICU was hosting the terrorists that bombed our embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. An incredible mistake on our part. Now we have the Somali's blood enemies occupying the place and a humanitarian disaster in the Ogaden which, for decades, has been the venue of a low-level war between the countries.

Small scale military intervention by the British ended the brutality of the RUF in Sierra Leone and US marines helped restore order in Liberia. They withdrew after brief incursions.

I have worked for most of my professional life in Africa and am familiar with the impact of the US on Africa during the Cold War.
The establishment of an Africcom should be nightmarish to all Americans with any sense of Africa's problems.

Posted by: David Davies at July 24, 2007 02:34 PM

Actually, the role of the military to promote local economic development has deep roots in the post-WWII period. Some of the readers may recall the efforts of "civic action" to carry out minor local civil works and provide basic medical services by local armed forces in the rural areas of some of the Latin American countries in the 1960s. Perhaps this was a response to just another manifestation of the inability of civilian administrations to provide basic local services.

In any case, the mobilization of DOD resources to assist in improving living conditions in rural areas should be encouraged rather than berated. But then again, what does most of the Washington elite know about living in poverty?


Also, I would not be so absolute as Dr. Ogah in condemning poverty, ignorance and inequality as "the major driving forces" of terrorism. Incidents in London, Spain, Indonesia, etc., do not seem to have been instigated by the poor or ignorant (e.g., many of them middle-class MDs in the U.K.). And it would appear that relatively well-off countries are among the major sources of financing for many terrorist activities.

For an interesting perspective on civilian DOD efforts to encourage local development, one might learn more about Paul Brinkley's BTA team's work in Iraq or the efforts of the PRTs in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Posted by: Del Fitchett at July 25, 2007 06:15 PM

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