Global Development: Views from the Center
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October 05, 2007
The End of An African Nightmare: Steve Radelet Writes from Liberia
Posted by Steve Radelet at 02:37 PM
The following post was first published on Nicholas Kristof’s New York Times blog, where Radelet, a CGD senior fellow, is one of several guest bloggers. Radelet lived for many years in Africa and Asia, taught at Harvard, and worked at the U.S. Treasury. He is currently serving as an economic advisor for President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia.
I am witnessing a truly remarkable turnaround. I’m in Monrovia, Liberia, in the midst of what until recently was a horrible war zone, but is now a place of hope. Led by the indomitable President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, the first woman elected head of state in Africa, Liberia is beginning to rebound from its devastating civil war and the monstrous incompetence of Samuel Doe and Charles Taylor that nearly destroyed the country. Liberia is at peace, the economy is growing, democracy is taking root, kids are going back to school, and families are being united.
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It would have been nearly impossible to imagine these changes just four-and-a-half years ago. Monrovia was in chaos as rebel groups shelled the city in an effort to oust Taylor. By that point the 14-year civil war had killed 270,000 people – an astonishing one out of every twelve Liberians – and forced another 250,000 to become refugees. The economy had completely collapsed, with GDP falling by more than 90 percent between 1989 and 1996, one of the largest collapses ever recorded anywhere in the world. Children as young as ten had become pawns in the violence, with warlords abducting them from their families, stuffing them with drugs, and arming them with AK-47s (for a first-hand account from a former child soldier in neighboring Sierra Leone, read the riveting A Long Way Gone: Memoirs of a Boy Soldier by Ishmael Beah).
But UN peacekeepers put an end to the conflict in 2003. Taylor first went into exile in Nigeria and is now in The Hague facing war crimes charges for atrocities committed in Sierra Leone. The UN and thousands of brave Liberians organized elections in late 2005 which resulted in President Sirleaf’s election. And she is resolutely moving the country forward by rebuilding institutions, restoring basic services, reviving the economy, and beginning to heal the deep wounds of war.
The signs of change are evident all around. This is my 12th visit here in the last 20 months, where I have the privilege of working with the government on a range of economic issues, most importantly the resolution of its massive foreign debt. Each time I come there are new signs of change: schools and clinics are being reopened, stores are restocked and repainted, the streets are ever more crowded with commercial activity, and electricity and water are being restored (there was no piped water or electricity except generators anywhere in the country for 14 years). Liberia’s “control of corruption” index, as measured by the World Bank, registered the second-largest improvement of any country in the world this year.
At the same time, the challenges and risks are daunting and at times seem overwhelming. The infrastructure was completely destroyed, and there is little money to rebuild it (although with donor support, the process is underway). Many skilled Liberians were killed or fled, making rebuilding government institutions more difficult. And there are a small number of people that profited handsomely from the conflict and seem prepared to do anything to regain power.
How long should the 14,000 UN peacekeepers stay? They have done a tremendous job so far, and the country is at peace. But if they leave too quickly – perhaps pulled off to Darfur or Somalia – there is a risk of a return to violence. But staying too long would undermineLiberia building its own institutions. The phase out is likely to be a 5-10 year process, allowing Liberia the time it needs to rebuilds its own security forces.
And what of the foreign debt? Most was borrowed by Samuel Doe in the early 1980s, and has not been paid since 1984. With penalty interest, Liberians today are stuck with the bill: $4.5 billion, equivalent to a massive 3,000 percent of exports, the highest ratio in the world. The major creditors all have pledged to forgive Liberia’s debts, but the process is stuck at the IMF, where the Board has been debating for a full year how to share the costs of the write-off. A solution seems at hand, but it isn’t done yet, and meanwhile Liberia must wait (if you feel so moved, write this week to the Managing Director of the IMF (email publicaffairs@imf.org)and ask for fast action to resolve Liberia’s debt crisis).
The new government faces many other challenges. The risks are high, and there is no guarantee of success. But the overall direction is clear, and the progress is tangible. Liberians are hopeful and positive, wanting to look forward and build a better future. I hate to be a sexist, but maybe we ought to put more women in charge in tough places around the world.
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Comments
The current government of Ms. Sirleaf Johnson is "three times as corrupt" as the previous government according to the Auditor General of Liberia. Shame on CGD for supporting these criminals in exploing a poor and war torn country.
Posted by: Albert Brennaman at October 8, 2007 12:52 PM
"But UN peacekeepers put an end to the conflict in 2003."
No, actually the US military put an end to the conflict. Typically, it gets no credit.
Posted by: shawn at October 9, 2007 09:23 AM
Steve, I heartily agree with this assessment of Liberia's progress and challenges. And after working alongside the effective women of the Ministry of Finance this summer, I second your concluding statement!
What I do not agree with, however, is the latest blog comment reiterating the Auditor General's claim that President Sirleaf's government is "three times as corrupt" as the interim government it replaced. Liberia's controversial new Auditor General contended that he had proof based on a “risk analysis of government performance.” Yet this claim is as outrageous as his allegation of corruption. After less than three months on the job, the Auditor General had yet to conduct a single audit of either the interim government or the current government, and could not possibly have had valid data to defend such a sweeping assessment. And in fact, no data at all was provided.
In contrast, the measurement that does use actual data -- the internationally accepted World Bank Governance Indicators -- has indicated a marked improvement in Liberia's scores for "control of corruption" during President Sirleaf's tenure. Several key policies underlie this success. After declaring corruption a "public enemy" in her inaugural speech, President Sirleaf has forced all key government officials to declare their assets. UN anti-corruption standards have been adopted, and an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative was recently launched to ensure that the proceeds from Liberia's abundant natural resources are used for the benefit of Liberia's people. Public financial management is now orders of magnitude more accountable and transparent, with new procurement and cash management systems in place. The result has been a windfall for citizens: revenues have more than doubled and urgently needed social sector spending continues to grow.
To be sure, the road towards good governance is long and Liberia is still at the start of its arduous journey. But compared to the rampant plundering and corruption of yesterday, there is little doubt that Liberia's strides under President Sirleaf amount to three very large steps forward. And not, as erroneously alleged, three steps back.
Posted by: Molly Kinder at October 10, 2007 02:50 AM
I remember facilitating a lecture on Monday,8th October,2007 on the topic Migrant Populations(Populations at risk) this is one of the factors fueling the incidence of HIV/AIDS. I also referred to the African Diaspora," the concept that I came across while exploring the internet."I therefore congratulate President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf(The first woman elected head of state in Africa), for having been appraised by ordinary people from the Civil Society; that Liberia is at peace, the economy is growing, democracy is taking root, kids are going back to school, and families are being united. What an achievement! this is not just a small thing, it is a very big issue as it portrays the characteristics of good governance.
Thank you,
Presented by: Francisca 'Mapitso Matsoha(Mrs)
Posted by: Francisca 'Mapitso Matsoha at October 10, 2007 03:57 AM
The first two comments below are a little headscratch-inducing. It is true that the US military was on the ground -- for a few weeks -- in 2003. Their presence clearly encouraged the warring parties to negotiate, and convinced Charles Taylor to hightail it on out of there. But US military never engaged in combat operations. ECOWAS before them and the UN after them played a much bigger role in that respect. As for the corruption trend: I'm more inclined to side with the World Bank's ratings (actually based on a survey of surveys -- not a single, potentially biased judgment of their own) than the rantings of a defeated presidential candidate who is currently fighting off a contempt charge and stands accused of purging a government office.
Posted by: DSimon at October 10, 2007 02:13 PM
The IMF agrees that Liberia’s debt situation is an important impediment to the country’s efforts to normalize its relations with the international institutions and progress on its development agenda. In that context, Liberia's debt to the IMF (US$835 million) is large, and substantial financial resources need to be mobilized to allow the IMF to provide debt relief to Liberia. The IMF Executive Board has already approved a financing package to facilitate mobilizing the necessary resources to provide debt relief to Liberia and IMF Managing Director , with the strong support of the World Bank President, is actively seeking contributions from the membership to fund this mechanism expeditiously. In addition, the IMF has been working closely with the Liberian authorities in the design of an economic program that will help to ensure that the resources made available as a result of debt relief will benefit the population at large. I should also mention that the IMF has also provided extensive policy advice and technical assistance to help the Liberian authorities sustain reform efforts over the past several years. We look forward to continuing to support Liberia’s macroeconomic and financial progress and a resolution of its debt situation.
Masood Ahmed
External Relations Director
International Monetary Fund
Posted by: Masood Ahmed at October 11, 2007 04:48 PM