Global Development: Views from the Center
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May 05, 2008
Peter Timmer Peels Back the Layers of Complexity in Global Food Crisis in University of Illinois Radio Interview
Posted by Lawrence MacDonald at 09:32 PM
Still puzzled and concerned about the global food price crisis after reading Arvind Subramanian's smart Q&A? CGD non-resident fellow Peter Timmer peels back the layers of complexity in a thoughtful online audio interview on WILL AM 580, the broadcasting service of the University of Illinois. Timmer, who estimated in an April 21 CGD Q&A that 10 million people could die prematurely as a result of the crisis, argues that the sharp spike in prices in the last six to eight months has a substantial speculative element. But he also warns that current yields are close to the technological frontier. "We are paying the price of two or three decades of neglect of agricultural research," he says, adding that biofuel subsidies are a big part of the problem.
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Comments
Some private agricultural companies did their homework and devoted big amount of money and time in agricultural R&D. But many governments, fanned by some activist groups, have rejected the results of biotechnological research, especially the genetically-modified (GM) crops. In the Philippines for instance, there was a big emotional debate on Bt corn, with some farmers and activist groups physically destroying farms planted to Bt corn.
Now that high food prices are staring in their faces, these anti-GM groups and lobbyists are generally silent. Poor consumers would rather eat GM crops and survive the current high food prices than fear the "long-term Frankenstein" effect many years from now if they consume GM food.
And yes, those subsidies for biofuels is a waste of taxpayers money. If producers of biofuels can make enough profit since there is big demand for their products, why should our monthly income be confiscated by a certain percentage, partly to finance the subsidies given to biofuels, not to mention the bloated agricultural bureaucracies in many countries?
Posted by: Nonoy Oplas, Philippines at May 6, 2008 05:02 AM
Besides technological advances, market reforms etc. what potential is there for infrastructure investment in agriculture?
How much does a big desalination plant cost? How much currently arid land could it irrigate, and how much food production would that add? How close would such a project be to covering its costs?
I am continually surprised by how infrequently infrastructure is mentioned in discussions of the food crisis. Perhaps that's because people like Peter Timmer have looked at the numbers, and know that they don't add up - otherwise it's a puzzling omission.
How much money does the Word Bank and other IFIs spend on agricultural capital investment? Ought it spend more?
Posted by: Luis Enrique at May 6, 2008 10:33 AM