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After the Plane Bomber, Where in the World is Nigeria’s President?
January 5, 2010
This entry was also posted on the Huffington Post, AllAfrica, and Sahara Reporters.
Amid all the media frenzy around the Nigerian underwear bomber and how America should have stopped him before he tried to blow up a passenger plane on Christmas Day, a critical piece to the counter-terrorism puzzle seems to have been missed: where in the world is the Nigerian President?
Normally, after such a horrific incident, President Obama would be on the phone with his counterpart, discussing what went wrong and agreeing on ways to work better in the future to prevent such attacks. But this couldn’t happen because Nigeria’s President Umaru Yar’Adua left his country for medical treatment in Saudi Arabia on November 23rd and hasn’t been seen or heard from since. [See Update Below]
Yes, you read that right: the whereabouts of the leader of Nigeria—America’s most important strategic ally in Africa, the fifth largest source of U.S. oil imports, and home to 150 million people—are unknown. It is also not clear if he is alive or dead.
The situation is so uncertain that Nigeria’s parliament is openly considering sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia to find out the truth. A major opposition party yesterday demanded, quite reasonably, some “proof of life”.
The mystery over Yar’Adua is so bizarre as to be comical—if the consequences weren’t so severe. His absence has thrust the country into an immediate constitutional crisis. The President failed to delegate authority to his deputy before travelling, effectively leaving no one in charge. This 43-days-and-counting power vacuum is being swiftly filled by an insular cabal bent on exploiting the situation for their own gain.
Complicating matters, the vice president—ironically named Goodluck Jonathan—is a Christian and an Ijaw, part of a minority group from the southern Niger Delta region and far from the power centers of the northern Muslim elites who expect one of their own to run the country. There is much speculation that insiders are scheming now of ways to keep Jonathan from ever assuming power. In an ominous sign, a new chief justice was quickly (and possibly illegally) sworn in last week.
These developments all put Nigeria’s future at great risk. A decade of constitutional democracy is threatened by the specter of mass violence and a possible military coup.
The failed terrorist attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab on Northwest Flight 253 highlights that Nigeria’s power void is dangerous for the U.S. as well. The foundation of a counter-terrorism strategy is to build cooperative partnerships with friendly nations. This means sharing information and helping to build security capacity in places like Yemen, Afghanistan, and Nigeria.
But we cannot have a partnership if there is no one on the other end of the line. Nigeria cannot be a reliable ally if it is consumed by its own corruption and political machinations. In this way, Nigeria is rapidly becoming more like Somalia—a failed state with no real government to cooperate with—than a real partner.
What can the United States do? First, it should insist on an immediate public declaration of President Yar’Adua’s health and fitness to govern. If the President’s staff refuse to oblige, then the U.S. should encourage the national assembly to assert its constitutional responsibilities when it reconvenes on January 12.
Second, if, as seems likely, Yar’Adua is in fact incapacitated, the U.S. must demand that the constitution be followed and power transferred to the vice president. The long-term security of Nigeria depends on entrenching the rule of law and this must supersede any palace intrigue or political bargaining.
Third, it is clear that whatever the outcome over the next few weeks, Nigeria will remain on a knife’s edge until elections in 2011. Any hope for a more stable country hinges on a credible election next year. Yar’Adua came to power in a deeply flawed poll in April 2007 and almost no steps have since been taken to fix the broken system. The U.S. is in a unique position to push for and help deliver a better election that would strengthen the authority and legitimacy of the next government.
Last, the U.S. can support Nigeria’s vibrant civil society that is clearly fed up and is increasingly demanding change.
The case of the missing Nigerian President is a wake up call to the United States about the vulnerability of many of our global partners. How we respond is not only crucial to the future of an important ally, but a critical test of our strategy for building partnerships in troubled places to combat the global ills of our time.
January 12 Update: President Yar’Adua spoke by phone with the BBC, from an undisclosed location, at least putting to rest rumors of his possible death. However, he was far from clear about his return and sounded extremely weak, which will not quell questions about a transfer of authority, even on a temporary basis. Here is the transcribed text of his call:
“At the moment, I am undergoing treatment and [cough] I am getting better from the treatment I am getting. I hope that -uh- very soon [cough] there will be tremendous progress which will allow me to get back home. I wish at this stage to thank all Nigerians for their prayers [cough] for my good health and for their prayers for the nation. [Pause] As soon as my doctors discharge me, I will return to Nigeria to resume my duties. I would also like to use this opportunity to wish our team, the Super Eagles, success in our Nations Cup of Nations matches in Angola.”
16 Responses to “After the Plane Bomber, Where in the World is Nigeria’s President?”
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January 5th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Todd – you took the words out of my mouth. well done. This is about as bad as I’ve seen in over 40 years of witnessing Nigerian ‘governance’. As you say, it is almost but not really laughable. How long will Nigerians tolerate it?
Chet Crocker
January 7th, 2010 at 1:45 am
Great article written with common sense and a good remedial training course for all the special advisers of Obama. Whatever happens to Nigeria in the next few weeks will have a reverbatory effect on the US and its only serious ally in Africa-Nigeria.
January 7th, 2010 at 8:20 am
Yes, Where in the world is the leader of the largest black Nation in the world? That is a legitimate question to asked.
To me, it is a shame in these days and ages that a leader of great nation called Nigeria has become a laughing stock of the rest of the world. What a shame.
We have a leader that is so greedy and selfish that he can not delegate power to his Vice while he was in far away Saudi Arabia for his recovery. What if he dies over there? Is he going to be buried with his position.
I looked at the past President Obasanjo, why he refused to intervene, God knows. Whatever the leaders do, the future will judge.
We have now been labeled as a ” Terrorist Nation” why the leaders in the Senate and House of Assembly sits down folding their arms not knowing the real implication of the whole situations. What a shame.
For the first time in my entire adulthood, I felt ashamed to be called a Nigerian.
The ridiculed and the harrasment that will subject to all nigerians abroad now, knows no bound.
I know that President Obama did what he has to do because the Gop or the Republicans are on his neck.
How can American labeled us as a terrorist nation, when the person involved with the attempt was not trained or recruit over here in nigeria, but in london and yemen.
I beg to disagreed with the rationalization of placing us as a nation on the terrorist watch.
what about the father of the accused person, nobody is saying anything about him, the mere fact that he informed the embassy about his son is not enough. He is to blame by sending his son to the foreign land without having time for him. 16 children in all. He is only trying to save his own a.. if I may say.
I believed the Nigerian political class is treading on a very dangerous ground if nothing is done about this situations. President Yardua should resign and let his Vice- President continues the affairs of the nation.
I have always believed that the Nothern Oligarchy will a problem for the future of nigerians because of the birth right to rule the nation called NIGERIA.
Let the Americans knows that we are not a terrorrist nation. We are a loving people of a great nation. We are a nation that is proud in our culture and family. We do not believed in violence. We cherish life and believe in God. Life is a gift from God.
January 8th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
This is a great article and truthful too. Nigeria simply needs a new president or maybe perhaps we should start rethinking of Biafara, a country for the southerners only. I don’t really see any connection between the southern cheristain Ibos and ijaws with nothern moslem fulanis and hausas. The traditional and cultural believes are absolutly different. We from the south want a great relationship with the west, U.S in particular. 1 out of 3 families from the south has at least a family member resides in the United States. Relationship with the United States is so important to most people in the south and we want to keep it that way. The Nigerian president should definitly step up to the plate or hand over to someone that is fit to do the job. This is the most incapable leader in the history of the country.
January 11th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
It is sad that life is not valued by many people in Nigeria. Instead of wasting our time talking and praying for Mr President’s death we should be concerned with his safe return. After all, millions of Nigerians have died since this total madness began. You need not speculate about his death. It is not possible for a Muslim’s death to be hidden for such a very long time. Those calling for the separation of this country should also trade very carefully. The north is peaceful, the southern Christians Igbos are killing themselves by the day ranging from kidnapping, robbery and ritual killings etc. Those agitating for VP to take over may at the end of the day pray for his own death too.
January 12th, 2010 at 11:14 am
THANK YOU for bringing more attention to this appalling situation. Only in Nigeria!
January 12th, 2010 at 8:49 pm
I think this write up is at best irresponsible. Is the president of Nigeria immune from poor health? Millions of people on earth are sick, even in the supposedly rich west!
This write up is destabilising to the nation of Nigeria, and the President has the right to seek for better treatment anywhere on earth, and let the Vice President manage the country until the president returns. This is even a mark of stability for Nigeria!
The alleged would-be-bomber bought his ticket from Accra, Ghana. I do not read Todd Moss referring to the failures of Ghanaian authorities? Is Ghana being courted because it has found oil, and everybody wants a portion of it?
This is an irreponsible write-up that would only be welcomed by tribalists in southern Nigeria, and
persons in the western world who wish to see Nigeria degenerate into chaos….
January 12th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
In as much as our president health problem is shrouded in secrecy, that does not warrant the United State Government to put Nigeria on the list of security watch , rather they would have in a civil way ask the government of Nigeria what is going on , this swift and hasty placement on the list goes a long way to show that we are not partners rather strange bed fellowers, real partners seek to help each other.
I dont think that the US likes Nigeria more than Nigerians like themselves, i accept the fact that Mr president has been absent for sometime now but that is the internal affairs of Nigeria, US is only interested in what they get out of Nigeria and not how to better Nigeria.
Todd wrote fine but our problems remains ours and not American’s.
January 13th, 2010 at 6:44 am
Nigeria is a unique country with a strange political class. It is only in Nigeria that a president can disappear and every Nigerian seem confused. Its a wonderful country, a case study of a country in a prolonged stalemate.
January 13th, 2010 at 11:40 am
The Washington Post seems to have picked up your idea in an editorial today, and calls for improved governance in Nigeria.
January 16th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
Guys don’t try to make a big issue out of nothing. This president is not died; why should someone hide such a thing? The country is in the hands of the Vice Presidents and the Canibet is functioning. This is not America or one European nation; things can move anyway whether the presidentis around or not. Do not make Nigerians stupid. US can not go for a day without a president but Nigeria have managed for more than a month. Be realistic guys. Todd, your proposals are catastrophic and I hope no one will listen to them.
Thanks,
Concerned African.
January 17th, 2010 at 10:18 am
Nigeria is an outstanding country, not because of the plane bomber would they put all the country as a terrorist but i actually do pray for the president to come back and may be discuss the issue with president Barrack Obama,at least they found an english man taking cocaine and so why didn’t they call britain an addict to cocaine country.Nigerians are not terrorists because we love our lives and i doubt if Abdul is a nigerian!
January 21st, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Todd – you let the cat out of the bag! Shame on you.
You are right. If this really was business as normal, Nigerians would not be complaining – life is hard already.
We are close to the 60day mark now. Also few really believe the Jan 12 message as it had been pre-recorded the day before and the BBC Hausa man who arranged it is another…wait for it…Katsina man. It takes the CIA a day or two to confirm Osama Bin Laden’s voice, here in Nigeria we pretty much accepted it as real. So much for voice cloning.
I pray this ends well. If so, it will create a stronger country. However not all prayers get answered.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:28 am
I thank GOD for the discretion the National Assembly displayed in the making of vice president GOODLUCK E. JONNATHAN as acting president of Federal Republic of Nigeria. My comment is, it should be ascertain if president Umaru Yar’adua is still alive so as to remove Nigeria from what I call ‘GHOST LEADERSHIP’ else she will be like sheep without shephard.
May 19th, 2010 at 10:08 am
I have re-visited this blog and issue simply because of the paranoia associated with Africa from the media and supposedly scholars from International centres with an agenda.
Nigiria has just had a smooth transition. The country’s leaders need a pat on back for the level-headedness they handled the power transmission.
Sadly, all our commentators, writers, bloggers, news media have gone silent because all these seems too good to be true. Had this gone awry, then blogs and air waves would have been full with Negeria branded a failed state, and Africa a hopeless continent!
May be Good news is not African. Perhaps, success too is not African! We need supposedly scholars like Todd Moss to stand up for real issues that contribute to human progress, especially African progress, rather than issues that denigrade human actualization….
May 19th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Excellent point. I will follow this up soon.