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A New CGD Initiative on U.S. Development Strategy in Pakistan: What Is It and Will It Work?
March 18, 2010
This is a joint post with Molly Kinder.
At CGD, we normally conduct research and analysis on development issues (trade, aid effectiveness, climate change, global health), not developing countries. Pakistan is an exception. Motivated by national security interests, the Obama administration is poised to triple its development assistance to Pakistan. The effectiveness of this new U.S. assistance is imperiled by the same governance problems that have undermined the billions spent by the U.S. and other donors in the last 30 years. Given these challenges, how can the new pledges of U.S. aid to Pakistan be implemented effectively, and what, if any, other policy or program initiatives might matter?
To address these questions, we recently launched a new CGD initiative on the U.S. development strategy in Pakistan. As part of this initiative we have convened a study group, comprising leading experts in development economics, national security, aid effectiveness and including several prominent Pakistanis. The study group will meet regularly over the next year to help us prepare periodic open letters to the administration commenting on and hopefully helping improve the assistance program, as well as trade and other U.S. policies aimed at greater security, stability and prosperity in Pakistan.
Why a CGD initiative on Pakistan and why now? U.S. policymakers view Pakistan as one of the most critical fronts – if not the most critical front–in the U.S.-led effort to combat extremism. Explaining that the U.S. cannot secure its interest in Pakistan with “bombs and bullets alone,” President Obama pointed to economic development as a central component of his national security strategy in Pakistan, and Congress has authorized $7.5 billion in development assistance to Pakistan over the next five years. This “quantum leap” in new aid resources to Pakistan dwarfs planned spending on other U.S. development initiatives. Will tripling (or even quadrupling) U.S. aid money to Pakistan work – from either a development or a security perspective? Despite huge inflows of assistance from donors and multilateral creditors over the past several decades, Pakistan has made little, if any, progress on the fundamentals of social development and state-building. Today, its democracy is fragile, corruption and patronage are rampant in government, most of its children never complete primary school, and its health indicators lag far behind those of Bangladesh, despite its higher average income.
As one of us documented in an analysis of the World Bank’s social sector spending in the 1990s, poverty in Pakistan was higher in 2004 than it was a decade earlier, despite millions of dollars of outside aid spent to support anti-poverty programs in the 1990s. Lessons were eventually learned from the experience, but only after a prolonged period of resisting the real difficulties. At least then and in those sectors, the bottom line was: it’s really hard to effectively spend a “surge” of aid money in Pakistan.
The development disappointments of past donor efforts in Pakistan are well documented. But, as study group member Andrew Wilder has pointed out in the case of Afghanistan, there is very little evidence of U.S. aid programs promoting stability or winning hearts and minds, and some evidence that such aid has been counterproductive. Similarly in Pakistan perhaps, at least in the past. Despite more than three decades of U.S. development aid to Pakistan (admittedly interrupted periodically), a 2009 Gallup poll placed Pakistan in a tie for the country with the least favorable view of the United States in the entire world.
That was one issue we discussed at the first meeting of our study group in February, which focused on the administration’s s announced Pakistan Assistance Strategy. We plan to release an open letter reflecting on that discussion soon. At subsequent meetings we will address trade, energy, water, job creation, government capacity and other development issues in Pakistan.
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6 Responses to “A New CGD Initiative on U.S. Development Strategy in Pakistan: What Is It and Will It Work?”
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March 23rd, 2010 at 7:24 pm
I would like to categorically say that Pakistan is missing opportunities due to biased external impressions and because the development intervention provided enduringly focused via conflict perspective where the best weapons in the world are sold.
I have been in Pakistan in 2008 and even went to one of its remote villages and found rural people are as much as peaceful as other peoples are and its bureacrats are as decent as others would claim they are. Their resources are much better than any developing nations, including their physical wealth, yes, truly far better than former military bases were located in the world. Their jungles are rich and indeed the most elusive, most wanted human being we would never find…. we will never know if only to justify the search.
Pakistan is ab beautiful country with beautiful people, let alone could be their asset. Have you been there? Go and look into people’s eyes. Have you gone to their schools where the young people are? Have you ever tasted the fruits they have? Have you seen Islamabad? It could be a model city for developing nations that until now have never thought building their new capital cities instead try to re-make desperately ugly cities.
Those who intend to study Pakistan have to find better perspectives far from conflict theory. Find the champions in Pakistan and help them be Pakistan’s development facilitators than negotiators… than brokers… let the young potential leaders come back to Pakistan, those scholars whom the rich nations have supported for the long view goals of developing Pakistan.
Not about sentimentalism nor symbolism, Pakistan needs an appreciative kind of inquiry so as to draw from the best that they have and grow from there. Development players need not reinvent theories and perspectives. Put the goodwill money where people could begin where they are. Ask categorical questions for categorical responses. Let the current public servants appreciate the wonders of the round tables where people would keep coming back for better results… than causing further unintended results…
Take in Pakistan the principles of the Managing for Development Results, open their bags of the CAP-Scan and let them carry these bags in their journey towards self-discovery. If ever we are finding the potentials of Pakistan becoming a great nation, then let them see it first. Help the young people people come to the centers of knowledge systems that they may take care of their senior citizens and nourish the much younger ones. Not a preach but an impresions from someone who would think being one of the Pakistanis. Think as if you are there.
March 24th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Frankly and honestly speaking the authorized $7.5 billion in development assistance will develop strong dependency on aids and collapse its own growth.
If Today, Pakistan’s democracy is fragile, corruption and patronage are rampant in government, most of its children never complete primary school, and its health indicators lag far behind those of Bangladesh, despite its higher average income, why USA having big concern providing fifnacial assistances. It shows that there are some hidden objectives to be achieved in Pakistan. And I am sure the problem will never be fixed. I can better suggest let pakistan do its best and the amout be utilized on Scientific researches. Believe me a strong negative attitude is found in muslims aganist the US policies, Whenever such resistance exists how one can make best intervention,So I suggest US should avoid such unfruitful measures because mind and heart are the things to be purchased.
March 25th, 2010 at 8:10 am
I believe that the Obama administration would spend its time and resources much more profitably by focusing its attention on pushing for a resolution to the Kashmir question. Resolving this would unlock so many of the problems that hold pack progress in Pakistan, largely related to the failure of civilian governments and the control of the army of most of the country’s resources.
This requires some level of political courage to persuade the Indian government to move from its intransigence in considering Kashmir a purely internal issue. The instrumental role of the USG in helping to move along the Northern Ireland peace process may be instructive in this regard
March 26th, 2010 at 8:43 am
I spent seven years (at two different times) living and working on education programs in Pakistan for USAID. I think it will be extremely difficult to spend the large amounts of money available in the current assistance program without doing something radically different from the past. I will be very interested in the recommendations of your Pakistan group.
March 27th, 2010 at 1:24 am
Pakistani people are not so bad.They are very liberal,positive and progressive.As it is clear that they are on key posts in the USA and UK.
But the main draeback is the system of governance in pakistan.There is very much leackage in this system due to which much of the energy is wasted and that is why the out put is 1% out ot 100.or in some cases -ive.
April 5th, 2010 at 2:21 am
Until and unless the fundamentals are not corrected no amount of aid will produce results Obama administration is hoping to achieve. The bottlenecks to be removed include issues of Kashmir, bad governance, bureaucracy with a mindset of 19th century, corruption, inept politicians to name a few. NGOs have not been more successful otherwise the amount of funds that have been flowing into the country should have produced a critical mass of reforms. The issues they set out to resolve 2 or 3 decades ago are still debates instead of morphing into value system of our society. That does not mean no good work was done, there are many success stories but the results are not proportionate to the billions of dollars that over the years the United States and other donors have spent on development in Pakistan.
So what is it going to be different this time when same set of stakeholders (both Pakistani and foreign) will be handling the funds and deciding where to spend?
What are the ingredients that foster good governance? Transparency and institution building are two important trajectories in this journey. One of solutions can be getting a reformed cadre of new generation of bureaucrats, this is where the institution building starts. Reform the program of study they undergo once they are selected. The present course is not designed to produce high bright public servants but arrogant public masters.
For next five years, year wise, key indicators ( education, heath, economic, energy, industrial production etc.) for each district should be set and it should be imperative for the district administration, whether elected or civil servants, (with non partisan support) to meet these goals. (Who sets these goals and who will ensure they get attained when deep vested interests on both sides of the aisle require to do otherwise? )
Reforming a country which is heavily indebted and cursed with bad governance is not easy. Patchwork of reforms will not be a sustainable solution.