Global Development: Views from the Center

 

COD Aid, Maternal Mortality, and the G-8—A Good Recipe?

March 25, 2010


This is a joint post with Katherine Douglas.

One of the exciting things about the Cash on Delivery Initiative is that once people understand the concept, they frequently come up with all kinds of new ideas for applying it. This happened most recently at the CGD-hosted book launch for Cash on Delivery: A New Approach to Aid this week. Within the course of an hour, the conversation shifted from skeptical questions to prospective applications of COD Aid.   While the book outlines a proposal for channeling aid to countries that accelerate their progress toward accomplishing the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary completion, people have asked about applying it to water, deforestation, malaria and to another Millennium Development Goal: reducing maternal mortality.

This last suggestion has struck a chord with many of us.  Every year, more than half a million women die from complications in pregnancy and childbirth, and 99% of these deaths occur in poor countries.  What’s more, as Karen Grepin recently discussed (citing the Disease Control Priorities Project), counting stillbirths among infant deaths would mean that roughly half of all child mortality occurs in the first year of life. These deaths are largely preventable.  Compelling evidence from Sri Lanka, Tunisia and Malaysia reveals that maternal and infant mortality can be drastically reduced in low-income settings by increasing access to skilled attendants and emergency obstetric care at birth. And if this isn’t reason enough to support the idea, consider this: interventions aimed at expanding coverage of skilled birth attendance demand basic reforms to strengthen health systems, improving health training, assuring availability of medical supplies, and addressing problems in management and contracting. Julio Frenk, Mexico’s former Health Minister, made this point at a recent Woodrow Wilson Center event, arguing that setting priorities grounded in women’s health drove improvements in Mexico’s health system.

So what would happen if a group of funders offered to pay $25 for a proxy indicator closely related to reducing maternal mortality – such as the number of births attended by a skilled health worker?  (As we emphasize in the book, defining the right indicator is critical.  It must be clear, measurable and verifiable at reasonable cost. An initial step would be to confirm whether skilled birth attendance is the right measure.)

To make a credible COD Aid agreement, this indicator would be reported by the recipient government and then subjected to verification by an independent agent – perhaps through a combination of auditing the reporting process and conducting a separate survey. One of the key advantages of such an agreement is that it would let the government decide the course of action it thinks would best achieve progress. The agreement would also align incentives at the national level toward the goal, involving the Finance Ministry as much as the Health Ministries in the process. It would also give a strong boost to improving vital registration and data on births and maternal mortality. 

It is actually a good time for such an initiative. This week, African leaders announced the theme of their July 2010 summit in Kampala:  “Maternal, Infant and Child health and Development in Africa”.  In addition, Canada is hosting the G-8 in Toronto this June and Prime Minister Harper announced that he would like to make maternal and child health a top priority for that meeting. If the G-8 agreed to develop a joint initiative to reinvigorate the MDG on reducing maternal mortality by expanding skilled birth attendance, a COD Aid agreement could probably be designed and in place within a year. At one of our workshops on COD Aid, a participant described the idea as “MDGs with teeth.” Wouldn’t it be nice to have something like this at a G-8 meeting to sink our “teeth” into!

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7 Responses to “COD Aid, Maternal Mortality, and the G-8—A Good Recipe?”

  1. Love COD aid. Hate “skilled attendance” indicator.
    I’m all for expanding the application of the COD aid approach into new areas (malaria, please). And maternal health could be a good choice, in that, a) it needs shaking up in thinking through, and trying new, program designs; and, b) leadership in many high-mortality countries are too resigned. So elevating focus on results while allowing new approaches to be applied…could be very productive.

    Using skilled attendance at delivery rates as your proxy performance indicator would likely be counterproductive, Especially in the high mortality countries of Sub-saharan Africa (where most of the avoidable maternal deaths take place).

    Evidence is emerging that the intense focus on expanding access to emergency obstetrical care and skilled attendance is just not sufficient in these countries. See Pagel et al in The Lancet.
    http://www.thelancet.com/journ.....X/abstract

    The upshot is: the rate at which these two service delivery strategies can reach women, especially poor women, is just too slow. And, there are effective strategies for reducing deaths (in particular deaths from hemorrhage, and infection) through traditional birth attendants.
    http://backyard.venturestrateg.....8;col=file
    It is critical that donors supporting maternal health programs start to support use of these strategies, and, applying COD aid, linked to “skilled attendance” would do just the opposite.

    I encourage you to explore possible indicators for maternal health programs though. I believe the best proxy you could use (in terms of being measurable, and incentivizing a highly cost effective service delivery strategy – which would work especially well in high mortality SSA) is: contraceptive prevalence rates and reductions in unmet need for family planning.

  2. A great idea in principle. But watch out! The devil’s in the details, at least from an equity perspective.

    For starters, there’s the problem that unless the focus is on additional births, rather than on all births, the principal beneficiaries are women would would have delivered anyway. These are overwhelmingly concentrated among upper-income women almost everywhere: in the average developing country, for example, the attended delivery rate is well over twice as high among women in the top economic quintile than among women in the bottom economic quintile. (In Africa, the ratio is over three to one.) Please note that this is not simply a hypothetical problem: in both of the two known cases of delivery incentives where there are adequate records to determine just who benefited (Ghana, Nepal), the overwhelming majority of benefit accrued to upper groups.

    So the first thing that’s needed is to reward additional attended deliveries, rather than all deliveries. But while necessary, this isn’t likely to be sufficient. For unless one limits the rewards to births among poor women, there’s a strong incentive for program managers to reach out to the woment who are most readily available; and these are also likely to be concentrated among better-off, more educated groups rather than among distant excluded ones.

    So the second need is for a focus on additional deliveries not to all women, but to poor women. Is this feasible operationally, and can it be monitored? In each case, the response is “yes” — or at least “probably.”

    Operationally, a focus on poor women is straightforward in the several Latin American countries with well-established systems for identifying poor people through a proxy means test. In such countries, rewards could be given on the basis of the number of women served who qualify in terms of that test. Elsewhere, as in Africa, where such systems do not exist and administrative systems are far weaker, identification of poor individuals might well be problematic; but a viable, less demanding alternative is available. This is simply to focus on rural women. Because poor women tend to have far more children than do better-off women, and because poor women tend to be heavily concentrated in rural areas, an effort rewarding additional deliveries among rural women would almost inevitably deliver benefits disproportionately to poor women. Also, the great majority of poor rural women in Africa — over 80% on average — attend at least one antenatal session; and such poor women usually constitute the majority of the ones coming for ANC service in a rural facility. This makes them easy to reach — through, for example, distributing vouchers for a delivery payment to all women coming in to rural factilities.

    As for monitoring, a viable system already exists in the form of household surveys undertaken regularly in most poor countries through the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) program. The reports on these surveys include quintile-specific attended delivery rates with standard errors that are adequately small for most purposes. One could use them to estimate the attended delivery rate for, say, the poorest one or poor quintiles, extrapolate to estimate the increase in the number of births in those quintiles — and those quintiles alone — during the period between the current DHS and the last one, and pay $25 for each on those. (To be sure, the DHS is usually undertaken only every five years or so in a country. If this is thought to be too long an interval, similar information is available through the UNICEF MICS surveys undertaken in many countries once every three years. Or if even shorter intervals are desired, it shouldn’t be hopelessly expensive to organize a yearly survey limited to asking only about household assets and whether the last delivery in the household was attended or not.)

    Best, Dave G.

  3. Karen Grepin on her blog makes some important and relevant points on this topic:
    http://karengrepin.blogspot.co.....lives.html

    The upshot is: she makes the very straightforward case that in one setting, say China, a maternal mortality program strategy of expanding institutional delivery may be quite effective (mostly due to the existence of such capacity at the beginning of the program, which when mobilized via demand inducing strategies, can have a very positive effect).

    In another country, with little hospital capacity, and the majority of women delivering at home, attended by a range of providers from quite skilled to completely unskilled(as in most of sub-Saharan Africa where most of the maternal deaths occur), a strategy which lifts the quality of these deliveries is much more likely to reduce maternal deaths in the short and medium run.

    Since I’m aware you need one or two good intermediate indicators for a COD aid approach to work, I suggest you apply COD aid in maternal health on a regional basis.

    This way you could pick an indicator or two that is likely to do more good than harm in that region, rather than ones that may do good in one region, and harm in another.

    May I suggest that you pilot your COD aid approach for maternal health in Africa? That is really where the biggest gains are to be made (and the most suffering can be addressed).

  4. The COD approach is certainly attractive. It recognizes the host country as the final duty bearer and, in principle, holds the aid recipient accountable for a final meaningful outcome, without dictating what approaches are to be taken. It is also encouraging that there are new signals of donor interest in reducing maternal deaths, which – whether happening at a rate of 350,000 per year or 500,000 – are scandalously high, given that the overwhelming majority are in principle preventable. But choice of skilled-birth-attendant-at-delivery as the indicator for such an incentive scheme would be a big mistake. I would like to echo the point made by April Harding; a focus on where a woman delivers or the supposed qualifications of the health worker attending her tells us nothing about the actual content and quality of care given, and it is these which will determine whether or not the service is effective in reducing risk to her and her newborn. Progress in reducing maternal mortality has been impeded by incentivizing the contact between health worker and beneficiary or the location where these services are delivered rather than the contact. Use of such indicators as benchmarks of overall program performance has pushed program managers towards strategies of training thousands of ‘skilled birth attendants’, or upgrading health facilities as ‘emergency obstetrical care sites’. Neither of these approaches are necessarily bad but they are by no means the only strategies available. Furthermore, use of indicators that only measure deployment of a strategy rather than provision of the actual interventions which save women’s lives (e.g. surgery for ruptured uterus, magnesium sulphate for eclamptic seizures) pushes attention away from where it needs to be. Use of skilled-birth-attendant-at-delivery has the appeal of seeming to be very simple. But as Einstein has warned us, “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.”

  5. April and Dave: Thanks for these suggestions. We’ve already taken some of them into account in a memo that we’re sending to people who are preparing for the G-8 meeting in June. If the G-8 set a goal of making a COD Aid agreement available to eligible countries in 2011, then they could put together a working group to figure out these details. There are a number of tradeoffs in the different proposals you make, and they should all be considered seriously.

    Please share the idea with anyone you think could have an impact on the G-8 agenda!

  6. I don’t really understand why there is such a fuss about CODAID. Is it really a “new” approach?

    1. Linking general budget support and results. The European Commission has developped the “variable tranche budget support” where governements receive a “tranche” of budget support when they reach a target in social sectors (i.e. skilled attendance rate, or secondary school completion rate). There is a direct link between results achieved by the country and the amount of budget support received. MOF and line minitries have – in theory – an incentive to succeed.

    After 8 years of implementation, one of the lessons learnt is that incentives at governement level make insufficient change on the frontlines, at provider level (health facility or school). Governements have trouble in reforming social sectors, increase efficiency, implement efficient information systems and independent control mechanisms. Incentivising the ministry of finance does not mean schools and health facilities are incentivised.

    2. In order to incentivise the providers – and ensure a change for populations – governements and donors of many african countries (DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, CAR, Cameroun, and many more are preparing similar schemes) have decided to provide cash to health facilities in direct relation with their results (quantity and quality). In the region, it’s called performance based financing or PBF. The funding is provided by an independent fundholder that transfers ressources to the facility based on its performance: for example 1$ for a fully immunized child, 8$ for a birth attended by a skilled health worker, 25$ for a cured TB patient, 50$ for a girl that achieves the primary education test, 15$ for a boy. Usualy, this funding mechanisms shows impressive results in terms of utilization of services.

    In central africa, those schemes have been in place for years, and channel multi-million dollars of funding from donors and governements. In Burundi and Rwanda, they are part of the national health financing system.

    based on my experience, my opinion is : (i) incentivising the governement (in fact the ministry of finance) is not sufficient, you need to ensure that the incentive goes to schools and hospitals (ii) incentivising providers means that governements have to implement specific systems for that: independent and accountable fundholders, efficient information system and audit mechanisms (split of functions). That is where the issue and difficulty is. (iii) The funding of those schemes will come both from Aid and governements. Therefore it is not really straightforward to focus on aid only (what CODAID does).

  7. Great comments from both Steve and Nicolas. They both represent issues that we were concerned about and had to address when developing an application in education (discussed in the book, _Cash on Delivery_).

    1. Steve recognizes the value of COD Aid in making it clear that the final duty bearer is the the recipient government. His concern is that the skilled birth attendant measure may be the wrong indicator of progress or create incentives for a particular strategy that may not be the right one. Two reactions: First, you may be right. If a funder comes forward with an interest in trying COD Aid, it will be important to get a working group together to figure out the best indicator. Second, I’ve gone back and forth on skilled birth attendance myself, but am leaning toward believing it is the right indicator – precisely because of Einstein’s dictum! Here’s why. The ideal indicator would be maternal mortality itself. However, the measurement issues appear to be insurmountable – it just wouldn’t be possible to count maternal deaths with the degree of precision necessary for such an agreement. So in the second best, we need a countable indicator that is a good proxy for progress against maternal mortality. Micro studies have not shown significant effects of SBA on reducing maternal mortality, but macro data does show a relationship. This leads me to think that countries that get SBA going for the population as a whole are doing other things (probably related to strengthening the health system more generally) that contribute to reduced maternal risk. If this is so, then SBA would be just the right indicator to pay for at the national level – though not for micro interventions. I may be completely wrong on this – it’s the debate we need to move forward if someone is willing to try the COD Aid approach.
    2. Nicolas asks what is new about COD Aid and refers to the EU budget support programs – a perfectly valid question. We studied budget support programs more generally and specifically the EU variable tranche approach. These programs do have a lot in common with COD Aid but they are not the same for a number of reasons:
    a. Most budget support program indicators are not outcomes or even outputs – for example, we were told in a recent trip to Liberia that the only education indicator in the current budget support program there is the share of education spending (an input).
    b. Budget support programs also tend to use indicators as triggers – a pass/fail approach – which creates high stakes when assessing whether to disburse funds. With COD Aid, the indicators are incremental – additional children completing school – and so the framework is one of “more or less success.” There is also no need to negotiate waivers – the payment is directly linked to the verified level of progress. Malawi had such an arrangement with the EU variable tranche, and I was told that $1 million was not disbursed, in its entirety, because the indicator was not met. (see my blog at http://blogs.cgdev.org/globald.....anches.php for a further discussion of this point).
    c. Indicators are often treated incidentally in budget support programs with much greater emphasis going toward negotiating and debating the government’s spending strategies and financial management practices. We found that very few budget support programs put funds or effort into improving social indicators, relying instead on whatever information systems are there and rarely verifying those reports in systematic fashion. While the content of the budget support debates is important, it isn’t the same as creating an incentive focused as tightly as possible on the desired outcome and giving the government free rein and full responsibility for reaching it.
    d. Finally, budget support programs tend to have lots and lots of indicators. This diminishes the incentive effect of the program because the country has lots of targets to address and it knows that in assessing progress, the funders will have latitude to waive some indicators. By contrast, COD Aid aims to be focused on one or very few indicators.

    In his second part, Nicolas is right about the large number of programs aiming to improve incentives for providers. Those are good initiatives. However, they are aimed at provider behaviors and performance. They don’t address the problems of accountability in the relationships between funders and recipient governments. I’m somewhat concerned that the term “COD Aid” is getting confused with these pay for performance programs when they are in fact quite distinct. COD Aid is designed specifically to try untangling difficulties in aid relationships. That is its real focus and promise.

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