The Generation Chasm: Do Young Populations Have Elderly Leaders?
February 3, 2012
This is a joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz.
A colleague recently returned from Senegal and commented that she was struck by the vast gap between that country’s youthful population and its aged leader. President Abdoulaye Wade is 85 years old while the median Senegalese citizen is just 18.7 years old. Perhaps that 66-year gap is one reason that Wade, who recently jammed through a change that allows him to run for a third term while disqualifying popular musician Youssou N’Dour, seems so out of touch.
Could a triple (or quadruple) generation gap be a factor in the spread of protests and rising public anger against the government? (Riot police were deployed in the capital Dakar today against anti-government protestors.) Or, conversely, are wide age gaps symptoms of a government alienated from its citizens and unresponsive to their needs
Hmmm. Hosni Mubarak was 83, a full 59 years older than the median Egyptian. The gap for both Tunisia’s Ben Ali and Libya’s Ghaddafi was 45 years. Obviously the factors behind revolts like the Arab Spring are highly complex, and there are plenty of reasons to expect leaders to be much older than their populations. But we wondered if there might be some patterns? So with colleagues* we put together a little database of leader and median ages. (Full results here.)
Top and Bottom 30

The Generation Chasm winner: Robert Mugabe at 69 years older than the median Zimbabwean.
Other interesting take-aways:
- A few Baby Presidents. Only 4 countries have a leader younger than the median age (Latvia, Montenegro, Finland, and as of about seven weeks ago North Korea).
- Africa dominates the Top Ten. Eight of the top 10 biggest gaps are in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- The Half-Century Club is African and Middle Eastern: Twenty-two countries have a gap of at least 50 years and all except India and Malaysia are from SSA or MENA. Those regions also account for 85% of the 33 countries with a gap of 45 years or more.
- Demographics > Leader age. Yes, most of the regional trends are driven by demographics rather than leader age, but there are still quite stark differences, for instance the average MENA leader is more than a decade older than their peers in Europe & North America.
Regional Averages

Source: UN Population Division, 2010.
We’ll keep looking at the data and explore other patterns (correlation with Freedom House scores, perhaps?). We don’t want to over-reach here and suggest anything other than these huge gaps are quite glaring. But we also suspect that the Generation Chasm is a detail not lost on the streets of Dakar.
*Special thanks to Ness Smith-Savedoff and Max Moss for compiling the data.
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7 Responses to “The Generation Chasm: Do Young Populations Have Elderly Leaders?”
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February 4th, 2012 at 5:38 am
I don’t think that the use of the term “recently jammed through changes” is accurate in this context. The Constitution was changed, by him, during his first term in 2001. It’s true that the Constitutional Court judges were appointed by Wade, and that the CC disqualified Ndour. Perhaps I am in error here, but I believe that Ndour was disqualified due to the supposed illegibility of some of the signatures on his petition to run. This is unrelated, legally at least, to the reason that the CC ruled that Wade could run, which was that the new Constitution allows him two terms, even though he’s already had two–he can have another since his first term started under the prior Constitution. All of this is accurately described on the Washington Post article you have linked to.
February 4th, 2012 at 7:23 am
I think the association you’re seeing is spurious. Poor countries have lower median ages than wealthier ones; authoritarian regimes more often have elderly leaders than democracies do; and popular uprisings are much more likely in poor countries with authoritarian regimes for reasons that have nothing to do with the ruler’s age as such. If you’re willing to share the data set you’ve compiled on population and ruler age, I would be happy to check that assertion.
February 7th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Very interesting observation, followed by a great graph. There should be a mandatory retirement age for all people above 65, making way for younger minds to take the lead. Looking at the graph if we ask all of those above age 70 to retire we would have most of the leaders from the 1st group gone. We should advocate for retirement bennefits.
February 7th, 2012 at 5:36 pm
In the cultures cited as having old and older rulers, eldership is accepted as leadership. I lived in the U.S. and saw how mainstream American culture put premium on youth and youthful leadership. To me, eldership as leadership is a function of culture. Second, I do not see any connection between protests and the age of the ruler. By and large, in Third World countries, protests arose because of poverty, injustice and corrupt governance.
February 11th, 2012 at 9:14 am
I love the way the CDG is using Senegal case to raise this issue. In fact as a Senegalese and development professional who follows with interest what CGD does, I was curious to see what the Think tanks had to say about the Senegal crisis, since you were involved in searching for solutions during the crisis in Cote d’Ivoire
Like many other young Senegalese, I have no much sympathy for Wade’s numerous governments and the way liberal party is running this country. However, I believe the problem is not his age. President Wade has used innovative ways to raise money outside the country and to increase our internal resource mobilization to fund local initiatives. To me, he has gone beyond the traditional austerity that was the rule during the socialist governments. He had great ambitions and he has successfully launched a number of good programs and initiatives. So age is not necessarily the problem in his case.
I am sure, it may contribute to some degree, but the frustration of senegalese came from the fact that he is grooming his son and he is not very sensitive to issues of equity. He protects his allies from prosecution and there is no independent justice……
The funny thing is that the alternative being offered does not match the aspirations of the people of Senegal. As I argued in an article I wrote in french 2 months ago, I think we have a big problem for the renewal of our political class and that’s in part, what explains the current involvement of civil society people who are very vocal and prominent. Change did happen in 2000 and new politicans have emerged, but they just perpetuated what existed.
So, although the alternative is not very reassuring, most people including myself will not hesitate to vote against Wade no matter what…
February 19th, 2012 at 11:14 am
No doubt that the generation chasm is real in many countries in Africa. This is not only in the political realm but the corporate as well. This has been a main cause of conflicts since the two groups have interests and preferences miles apart.While one group is craving for change, the other on fixated with their previous achievements and is wondering which change the masses are calling for.The older generation is out for self preservation and for their cronies while the majority young masses want to transform their livelihoods as fast as they can. Truth be told, this chasm can only be eliminated by both political and board room revolutions.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Jay, you are absolutely right to point out that any relationship between the gap and protests is probably reflecting relationships between age, regime type, and poverty. We didn’t mean to suggest the age gap has independent explanatory power for protests, just that the gaps are pretty striking and that there are some interesting regional trends. We haven’t yet poked the data to see what relationships there are between the age gap & regime type, and age gap & poverty (although I suspect you are right on both counts). We are more than happy to share the data, however, so just send me an email and I’ll shoot it over to you (smajerowicz@cgdev.org).
Darwin, we also don’t mean to suggest elderly leaders are necessarily bad– there’s much to be said for experience. However, when the rulers are not a few decades, but more than half a century older than their median citizen, it’s hard to believe that the rulers are not somewhat out of touch with the needs of their constituents.