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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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 Posts:October 7, 2009Connecting the Demographic DotsBy Rachel NugentDanielle Kuczynski contributed to this post A recent Economist on-line poll asked: Does the world have too many people? There was a predictable response: from their Blackberries or the comfort of their swivel chairs, 80% of Economist voters clicked on yes. You can be sure the respondents are neither the folks having lots of children, nor the ones suffering from the environmental impact of lots of people on the Earth. Yet the commentary accompanying the poll was intriguing, because the same people who agree that the world is over populated don’t agree about what that means, nor what to do about it. Read More… 1 Comment »September 22, 2008Middle Income and Emerging Markets May Be Most at Risk (Development Impacts of Financial Crisis)By Rachel Nugent
Comment »May 30, 2008New GAO Report is Food for Thought — And ActionBy Rachel NugentA new GAO Report on international food security (International Food Security: Insufficient Efforts by Host Governments and Donors Threaten Progress to Halve Hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2015) gets it almost completely right when it points to the feeble, self-defeating, and confused U.S. policies on world hunger. The report diplomatically states: Comment »August 17, 2007Three Cheers for CARE Decision to Forego U.S. Food AidBy Rachel NugentHuge kudos to CARE for taking a bold and reasoned stand on how best to deliver food aid to developing countries. Kudos as well to the New York Times for yesterday’s front page coverage of the CARE decision—how remarkable to see food aid so prominently featured in the NYT!—and its other recent coverage (subscription required) of how U.S. policy affects poor African farmers. As the NYT reported:
2 Comments »March 26, 2007Death & Taxes May Be the Only Sure Things in Life – But Can We Postpone Them?By Rachel NugentAs I discussed in a recent post over at the Global Health Policy blog, a new UN report (pdf) announcing an aging world has serious implications for health. It also portends some tough decisions need to be made about public finance – decisions that U.S. policymakers have so far ducked. An aging world population is bringing about a shift in public finances as the working age population shrinks relative to the retirement population. This implies less tax revenue from labor income will be available to support a heavier expenditure burden from social security and medical needs. The hardest-hit countries are experimenting with a variety of innovative policy approaches, including indexing of public pension systems in Germany, Japan, and Sweden to account for changing demographics; increasing savings either through private or public pension systems (Australia, Sweden); and investing to try and get a better return on public retirement funds (Canada.) Some farsighted developing countries are also experimenting with social insurance schemes for the aged (Chile, Argentina), while others have virtually no systems in place to cope with greater longevity combined with increased prevalence of costly chronic diseases. The developing countries that are further along in the demographic transition would do well to study the trials and errors of the aging developed countries and prepare themselves. The demographic pressure on the U.S. is not as immediate as it is in other developed countries since it has a large and growing young population. However, the low savings rate and high health care costs in the U.S. constitute major challenges (pdf) to be addressed before population aging sets in. Time is a-wasting in many countries to slow the rising burden of chronic diseases and shift public financing priorities so that one in four people aren’t facing a combination of serious illness and collapsed public finances in 2050. Comment » |
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As with all financial disasters — whether it’s your neighbor’s lost job or a macroeconomic shock — the first thing people want to know is “will it hit me?” This question must be on the minds of ordinary people and macroeconomic policymakers across the world, including those in developing countries. The policymaker’s answer will depend on two things: (1) how closely is her country integrated in the international financial markets; and (2) how vigilant have her country’s regulators been in regulating and supervising its capital markets?
