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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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 Todd Moss is vice president for corporate affairs and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. Full Bio Follow @toddjmoss
Showing posts on the Views from the Center blog. View author posts on: Beam Me Back, Scotty: How Young Liberians Are Coming HomeApril 17, 2012By Todd Moss in Global Development, Liberia Tags: Fellows, Scott
This is a joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz
Scott Fellow Idella Cooper 2nd from right
When in Liberia last February, we kept running into dynamic young Liberians with American accents in high-powered jobs. They also seemed to have something else in common. Idella Cooper, the newly-appointed Deputy Justice Minister, had returned to her home country first as a Scott Fellow. Gyude Moore, President Sirleaf’s deputy chief of staff and head of the President’s special Program Delivery Unit, is a Georgetown grad and former Scott Fellow. The Scott Fellows, literally, seemed to be everywhere. 1 Comment »While We Are Skewering International Patronage Anachronisms…April 10, 2012By Todd Moss in International Financial Institutions, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Tags: International Financial Institutions, World Bank
Advocates for a competitive, meritocratic selection process for the President of the World Bank are dead right. Allowing the White House to just pick is deeply unfair, inefficient, and a relic of a by-gone age. But why stop there? Here’s my list of international patronage anachronisms that should also go: 4 Comments »Mali’s Coup, What’s Next, and Why I’ve been Accused of Resembling Sharon StoneMarch 23, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa, Fragile States, Governance/Democracy Tags: Governance, Mali
The news of the coup in Mali yesterday is a shock to those of us who have worked on this beautiful and amazing country. It is a tragedy for Malians, who have worked so hard to build what had been, until a few days ago, a shining model of democracy and economic progress. It is a sad day for the rest of the world, too, as I explain in this UN Dispatch podcast. 2 Comments »Wanted in the Next World Bank President: Courage for Innovation and a Healthy Dose of HumilityMarch 15, 2012By Todd Moss in International Financial Institutions, The Future of the World Bank, World Bank Tags: International Financial Institutions, World Bank
With eight days to go before the nomination deadline, chatter about the next World Bank President has predictably focused on whether America’s monopoly on the post is an anachronism or if it’s still a good way to keep US engagement. Speculation about potential candidates has tended to weigh the personalities, their egos, and how they might be received by shareholders and/or Bank staff. (My money is still on Secretary Clinton, although Pepsico’s management moves on Monday make me think Indra Nooyi may be the true frontrunner.) What I’ve heard less about is: what kind of person should lead an institution facing an existential crisis? 7 Comments »Battle for the Presidency: Game Change AbujaMarch 12, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa Tags: Africa, Nigeria
The political classes are abuzz with details from the latest tell-all memoir revealing what was really going on behind-the-scenes in a nation absorbed with political intrigue and obsessed with the future of the Presidency. I’m not talking about why John McCain picked Sarah Palin, but rather what in the world was going on in Aso Rock when President Umaru Yar’Adua was losing control of the Nigerian government. Comment »You’ve Heard of Herman Cain’s 9-9-9. Here’s Nigeria’s 20-20-20 (And This One Might Fly)February 15, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa, Economic Growth, Oil Tags: Africa, Oil, Poverty
Lately I’ve been thinking Nigeria should be a little bit more like, of all places, Iran. Yes, Iran. And maybe Alaska. Here’s how. Africa’s most populous nation has been a massive underperformer since independence. It’s earned hundreds of billions of dollars from petroleum exports, but the average Nigerian has little to show for it. At least three decades were lost; average incomes in the mid-2000s were the same as in the mid-1970s. More recently, the economic data has been brighter. And there is always hope that the country has finally turned a corner. 5 Comments »The Generation Chasm: Do Young Populations Have Elderly Leaders?February 3, 2012By Todd Moss in Governance/Democracy Tags: Regions
This is a joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz. A colleague recently returned from Senegal and commented that she was struck by the vast gap between that country’s youthful population and its aged leader. President Abdoulaye Wade is 85 years old while the median Senegalese citizen is just 18.7 years old. Perhaps that 66-year gap is one reason that Wade, who recently jammed through a change that allows him to run for a third term while disqualifying popular musician Youssou N’Dour, seems so out of touch. 7 Comments »How’s Your Country Score? Kudos to AfDB for Its Data ReleaseJanuary 31, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa, African Development Bank Tags: Data Transparency
I’ve been closely watching the impressive changes at the African Development Bank. (Our 2006 working group report recommendations are here and my 2010 progress scorecard is here.) In particular, I’ve been encouraged by the Bank’s articulation of its comparative advantage in infrastructure and private sector and the shift in its portfolio to reflect this focus. A big driver of who actually gets access to Bank resources is an internal scoring system based on performance. 2 Comments »How to Turn Citizens into Owners of National WealthJanuary 12, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa Tags: cash transfers, Natural Resources
This post, co-authored with Alan Gelb, was originally published in Financial Times: This is Africa On November 28 Anadarko Petroleum doubled the estimate of its massive Mozambique gas discovery. If this proves correct, Mozambique will become a major gas exporter and can expect a hefty windfall. Mozambique is not alone. Per square mile, proven sub-soil assets in poor countries — notably in Africa — are only about one quarter of those in better-explored, rich countries. Not surprisingly, high prices and new technologies are driving new oil, gas, and mineral discoveries across the developing world. Billions of dollars will be pumped into countries like Uganda, Liberia, Papua New Guinea, Mongolia and Bolivia. While this should be good news, it also raises concerns. 1 Comment »Nigerians Demand Cheap Gas, But Fuel Subsidies Are NOT Pro-PoorJanuary 6, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa, Oil Tags: Africa, Oil
This is a joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz. Last Sunday the government of Nigeria scrapped fuel subsidies, leading to an immediate doubling of petrol prices. This set off violent protests across the country, threats of strikes by trade unions, and was even lamented by western pundits as a sign of government indifference to the poor. Economists of course view the move as a valiant step toward fixing a deeply dysfunctional budget system. Fuel subsidies were (directly and indirectly) draining the treasury, at a cost of up to US$8bn per year, equivalent to over 25% of the federal budget. The rub will be if the government can make the case that there’s a better way to spend its resources than through fuel subsidies. Nigerian protesters could be forgiven for being skeptical. Many see cheap gas as the only tangible benefit from their country’s vast oil wealth. 5 Comments »What’s Wrong with Dodd-Frank’s Conflict Minerals Provision?January 5, 2012By Todd Moss in Africa, Fragile States Tags: Africa, Fragile States
Hidden within the 2,300+ page Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (large PDF) are two sections aimed squarely at Africa. Section 1504 requires companies listed on US stock markets to disclose payments to foreign governments. This has been widely hailed, including by CGD, as an important step for encouraging transparency and a sensible complement to efforts like EITI. 9 Comments »Our Own Global ThinkersNovember 28, 2011By Todd Moss in Cash on Delivery Aid, Global Development Tags: Andy Sumner, Arvind Subramanian, Lant Pritchett, Nancy BirdsallAs we enter the annual list season, I’m thrilled to see four of my CGD colleagues make Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers: Comment »Ghana Graduating to Middle-Income, Catching Up to Its Own Vibrant Civil SocietyNovember 22, 2011By Todd Moss in Africa Tags: Africa, Ghana, IDA
I had the pleasure of visiting Ghana again this month to discuss the possible implications for the country of its new middle income status, the result of rapid growth and (a rather significant 63%!) statistical adjustment. In particular, I was there to talk about Ghana’s looming graduation from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) window. This is crucial for Ghana, since IDA is the country’s #1 donor and has been for much of the past 30 years. Comment »What the Solyndra Scandal Can Tell Us about Fixing Our Broken Aid System (Hint: Be More Like OPIC & MCC)November 22, 2011By Todd Moss in Environment, U.S. Foreign Aid Reform Tags: Clean Energy, Energy Policy, USAID
As the troubling details of the Department of Energy’s loan program continue to roll out, I can’t help but think of another beleaguered agency…USAID. And, I also wonder if, in thinking how to generate new clean energy technology at home, we might also find insights to better promote development abroad? Here’s how: Congressional inquiries into Solyndra’s collapse are asking about how half a billion dollars of public money was lost, focusing on potential conflicts of interest, how political influence may have contaminated the loan decision, and how bureaucrats within one agency (DoE, which ran the program and was under massive pressure to show progress on clean energy and to push money out the door) ignored red flags and concerns from other agencies (Treasury, OMB). Anger from Capitol Hill is understandable, but the charges of cronyism or mistakes by civil servants aren’t, to my mind, the real story here — these problems were utterly predictable given the nature of the solar panel market and the structure of the loan program. The real worry is why such difficult investment decisions were in the hands of DoE in the first place. Comment »Nigeria, SWFs, and the Resource Curse? Two New PapersNovember 2, 2011By Todd Moss in Global Development, Oil Tags: global development, Oil to Cash
This is a joint post with Stephanie Majerowicz Nigeria, perhaps the world’s poster child for the oil curse, is the latest country to deploy a sovereign wealth fund as a tool to try to better manage national income. At the same time, Nigeria is struggling with depleted savings and growing fiscal concerns, even in a time of high oil prices. Will the sovereign wealth fund help Nigeria get back on track? What are the chances it won’t be raided by politicians with short-time horizons, as in the past? Could cash transfers help? Two new background papers from CGD’s Oil2Cash Initiative look at these questions from different perspectives. Comment »What Should Happen to IDA after It Loses Most of Its Clients? We’ll Explore the OptionsOctober 19, 2011By Todd Moss in International Financial Institutions, World Bank Tags: IDA, International Financial Institutions, World Bank
Earlier this year, Ben Leo (who recently joined our friends at the One Campaign as their new Global Policy Director) and I projected IDA graduations out to 2025 as an exercise to think through what the World Bank’s soft loan window might look like in the near future (full working paper is here). Everyone knows India is about to graduate—and I’m also thinking a lot about implications for Ghana and will present my findings next month at the Institute for Economic Affairs in Accra—but we wanted to see who else might be moving on to IBRD. The results were fairly startling: within the next 10-15 years, IDA will lose over half of its currently eligible client pool, including some of the largest and best-performing economies. The IDA pool of 2025 be small, almost entirely African, and a majority will be countries currently designated fragile or post-conflict. Yikes! Comment »The Pentagon, Defender of Sound Resource Management in Afghanistan?October 6, 2011By Todd Moss in Global Development Tags: Afghanistan, China
Back in June 2010 a burst of media reported that US geological surveys in Afghanistan revealed vast mineral and oil deposits in the poor war-torn country. This of course only confirmed the suspicions of some who just knew that U.S. military action in Afghanistan was really an imperialist asset grab. Ah ha! But now we have pretty good evidence that the Pentagon had no such designs on Afghan riches. The Defense Department’s Task Force on Business and Stability Operations, which is helping the country design its tender and selection process for mining and oil contracts, set up a system that seems—if complaints like this one in Foreign Policy are anything to go by—to be maximizing benefits for Afghanistan rather than Western companies. Imagine that! 1 Comment »Is 2012 Iraq’s Last Chance to Get It Right on Oil?September 13, 2011By Todd Moss in Oil Tags: Iraq
This is a joint post with Steph Majerowicz. The Arab Spring has grabbed the world’s attention, yet Iraq—the Arab country that not long ago was the very epicenter of American foreign policy—has all but fallen off the front pages. While Iraq’s security has improved greatly, the country is still struggling to consolidate a functional government in the face of strong sectarian tensions. Not least of these big challenges is reaching agreement on oil. Eight years after the fall of Saddam, Iraq has yet to pass a hydrocarbons law, let alone come up with a coherent spending plan for its oil wealth. Related Working Paper and Podcast So how could Iraq manage its oil? One idea (and readers of this blog will be shocked to hear) is a universal dividend paid to all Iraqis. Colleagues Nancy Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian proposed just this idea back in 2004 as a way to try to create accountability. The idea of an Alaska-style dividend for Iraq was starting to catch on, for example, this NY Times oped by Steven Clemons, proposals from Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA), and even former Alaskan governor and dividend godfather Jay Hammond tried to export his grand experiment to Baghdad. Given the political and security climate of the time, the idea was thought too radical. 1 Comment »Could Uganda Be the Next Niger Delta?August 2, 2011By Todd Moss in Africa, Oil, Regions Tags: Africa, Oil, Regions
That’s the question in Alain Vicky’s piece this morning in Le Monde Diplomatique (gated). Vicky warns that oil discoveries in Uganda’s Bunyoro region threaten to heighten simmering tensions between the local communities whose ground is being drilled and the central government which is pocketing the cash. Unmet expectations and popular frustration with politicians could unleash violence and do raise concerns that Uganda might be heading for a rough patch. Given the technical characteristics of Uganda’s crude and that the country is landlocked widespread “bunkering” and criminality as seen in the Niger Delta are probably unlikely. But the risk of local grievance-driven violence and sabotage is all too real. 1 Comment »Making Sense of African Development: Updated and More Optimistic!July 28, 2011By Todd Moss in Africa, Regions Tags: Africa, Regions
I’m thrilled that the 2nd edition of African Development: Making Sense of the Issues and Actors is out this week. Thanks to Chris Blattman at Yale, Callisto Madavo at Georgetown, and others who have used it in their courses, demand for the first 2007 edition was high enough that the terrific Lynne Rienner asked me to do an update. Comment » |
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