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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Global Health Policy
Posts in: Demand ForecastingEnd-Use Verification: Simple but Potentially PowerfulAugust 12, 2011Posted by Amanda Glassman in Demand Forecasting, Donor Community, Evaluation, Monitoring, and Measurement, Global Health Architecture and Governance
When budget cuts loom and all the issues are big and thorny, one is naturally attracted to the small and overlooked initiatives that might make a difference. I recently discovered the President’s Malaria Initiative’s (PMI) “End-Use Verification Tool”, a short questionnaire being implemented to regularly monitor the availability of malaria diagnostics and medications at the health facility level in PMI focus countries. 1 Comment »How Plausible Are the Predictions of AIDS Models?November 29, 2010Posted by Mead Over in Demand Forecasting, Global Fund, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases, PEPFAR, WHO Tags: AIDS Transition, Global Fund, NICE, PEPFAR, UNAIDS, WHO
UNAIDS, WHO, PEPFAR and the Global Fund for AIDS TB and Malaria (GFATM) all depend on long-run projections in order to make the case for increased attention and financing for AIDS. This dependency is a response to the reality that HIV is a slow epidemic with extraordinary “momentum”. Even small changes in the course of new infections require years to implement and have health and fiscal consequences for decades thereafter. According to the UNAIDS web site, “[s]ince 2001, the UNAIDS Secretariat have led cutting-edge international work to define and project the developing world’s HIV/AIDS financing needs.” In 2007 UNAIDS published estimated future resource needs here. The GFATM used projection models to argue unsuccessfully for sustained funding here. And according to Congressional testimony here, PEPFAR has “looked at the impact of combination interventions on HIV infection rates, applying sophisticated modeling techniques to a generalized, high-prevalence context, and found that infections could be cut by more than half.” All of these projections were produced by one modeling group, The Futures Institute, with their suite of modeling tools, called GOALS which is available as a free download here. 4 Comments »Daddy Healthbucks: How Will the Gates Foundation Leverage the New $10 Billion for Vaccines and Immunization?February 8, 2010Posted by Ruth Levine in Demand Forecasting, Vaccines
9 Comments »Getting Down to Business in Global Health OR The Brain in Spain Works Mainly on Supply Chains (I think we’ve got it!)October 26, 2009Posted by Ruth Levine in Demand ForecastingWhen business expertise combines with an opportunity to contribute to a social mission, the results can be remarkable. Let me share one powerful example. In mid-2006, as the Global Health Forecasting Working Group was underway, my co-chair Neelam Sekhri and I were feeling stuck. With working group members from a range of global health organizations, who brought perspectives from industry and international public health, we had been able to describe the magnitude of the challenge of forecasting the demand for global health products, particularly new ones like the rotavirus vaccine and artimesenin-based anti-malarials. We’d also developed a good understanding of how inadequate information about effective demand – how much money would be available to buy what, and at what pace countries would be likely to introduce – constrained the ability of firms to make the business case for investment in manufacturing capacity, let alone new R&D. What we were missing, though, was the deeper understanding about why the demand forecasting problem persisted, despite reasonably wide recognition that it caused shortfalls in supply, wasted of products, time and money. It’s often in answering the question, “So why hasn’t someone solved that yet?” that you discover the most interesting new ways to approach a problem. Read More… 3 Comments »AEI Takes on Demand Forecasting for MalariaApril 24, 2008Posted by Administrator in Demand Forecasting, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases, HIV/AIDS and other Infectious DiseasesIn honor of World Malaria Day tomorrow, AEI research fellow Roger Bate has issued a new policy brief and related magazine feature decrying the state of global demand forecasting for artemisinin-based cominbation therapies (ACTs):
1 Comment »Diagonal Health Care: Clever Cartoons Hide the Benefits of Complementarity and the Costs of Unbalanced Provider IncentivesApril 22, 2008Posted by Mead Over in Demand Forecasting, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases, Malaria, Pharmaceuticals & Health ProductsA paper by Gorik Ooms of Médecins Sans Frontières Belgium and co-authors introduces a new metaphor to the discussion of policy towards developing country health systems: “diagonalization.” This word adds a useful image to the still unresolved and increasingly sterile debate between advocates of “vertical” and “horizontal” health programs. For those from outside the health sector (is anyone like that reading this blog?), a horizontal program is one which attempts to provide the population with access to generalist health care practitioners who can attempt to diagnose any patient, to treat some and refer others to more highly trained or specialized providers at “higher levels” of a health care referral structure. In contrast, a vertical program is one which is designed to deliver a single package of interventions, often aimed at a single disease or at a group of diseases that can all be addressed by that package. 1 Comment »Agriculture & ACTs: New USAID Working PaperJanuary 28, 2008Posted by in Demand Forecasting, Donor Community, HIV/AIDS and other Infectious Diseases, PEPFARThe market for artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) for malaria is notoriously complicated, and has received a great deal of recent attention as the subject of the proposed Affordable Medicines Facility-malaria. But in order to truly understand the complexities involved – and the potential impact of donor interventions – the global health community would do well to consider the entire value chain for ACTs and the implications for the agricultural market as well. Over the past several years, an entire industry has emerged to supply the active biological ingredient, Artemisia annua, but has received relatively little attention from the malariologists, who have typically focused further downstream. USAID agricultural economist Dana Dalrymple has been following this topic closely and has summarized his findings and observations in an ongoing working paper, “Agriculture, Artemisia, ACTs and Malaria Control in Africa: The Interplay of Tradition, Science and Public Policy.” I highly recommend a thorough read of the most recent draft, which paints a truly comprehensive picture of the critical linkages between agricultural and medical market dynamics. As this is still a work in progress, Dr. Dalrymple warmly invites comments and suggestions from the broader global health community. Feedback should be sent to ddalrymple@usaid.gov. Please consult Dr. Dalrymple before quoting, citing or reproducing any part of the paper. 1 Comment » |
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