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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity
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Global Health Policy
Posts Tagged: Demographics and DevelopmentThe Power of Demo-GraphicsOctober 8, 2009Posted by Danielle Kuczynski in Evaluation, Monitoring, and Measurement Tags: Demographics and DevelopmentSometimes ‘connecting the dots’ between different ideas in the development discourse can be a challenge. But as Hans Rosling has highlighted through his famous Gapminder presentations at TED, a picture is really worth a thousand blog posts when it can be used to draw connections and emphasize trends that may not otherwise become apparent. A new blog post by Rachel Nugent on Views from the Center examines recent attention to demographic issues in the Economist and draws connections across these pieces with some ‘demo-graphics’ that show long term fertility trends in Sub-Saharan Africa and in rich countries. Comment »“Will You Still Need Me, Will You Still Feed Me?”July 31, 2009Posted by Danielle Kuczynski in HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases, HIV/AIDS and other Infectious Diseases Tags: Demographics and DevelopmentThis is a joint post with Rachel Nugent. A new report from the US Census Bureau offers the surprising fact that in the next 30 years, the human population over 65 will double. In ten years, there will be more over-65s than under-fives. Old news, you say? Yes, in Italy, Japan, and Russia this is old news. In developing countries, it is new – and somewhat alarming. In 2008, 62 percent of all those aged 65 and over (313 million people) lived in the developing countries of Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, and Oceania. The elderly population in developing countries is growing twice as fast as in developed countries (on a not very small base in India and China, as it turns out. Those two countries account for 1/3 of the world’s aged population and 37% of the total global population.) Read More… 3 Comments »A Major Transition: Putting Demography Back in DemocracyJanuary 7, 2009Posted by Danielle Kuczynski in Global Health Tags: Demographics and DevelopmentIn The Fate of Young Democracies, CGD Visiting Fellow Ethan Kapstein and co-author Nathan Converse attempt to explain why many newly democratized countries experience political reversals. They call these reversals “Major Democratic Transitions”– a phrase that makes our demographic ears perk up. Comment »The World at Seven Billion: Global Demographic Trends in the First Decades of the 21st CenturyAugust 19, 2008Posted by Rachel Nugent in Global Health, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases Tags: Demographics and Development
– Sufian Ahmed, Ethiopian Minister of Finance and Economic Development
– Carl Haub, Senior Demographer at the Population Reference Bureau The 40th anniversary of World Population Day came and went last month with nary a whisper around D.C. In the U.K., rather more attention was paid, including a House of Lords reception featuring Sarah Brown, the PM’s wife, and 150 other notables sipping champagne in honor of the International Planned Parenthood Federation. Beyond the protocol-filled receptions, what does World Population Day mean now, and why should we keep it on the calendar? Commemorating World Population Day may seem like celebrating the anniversary of the Motion Picture Society’s movie rating system (G, PG, R, and so on) – another relic created in 1968 that is clearly out of touch with today’s world. Was the day rendered unremarkable because of successful efforts to curb rapid population growth? Have new technology, changed cultural mores, and economic progress obviated the need for World Population Day, just as they’ve made motion picture censorship irrelevant? Comment »A New Lens on a Familiar Question: Did Organized Family Planning Efforts Do More Harm Than Good?April 21, 2008Posted by Rachel Nugent in Health Systems, HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases Tags: Demographics and Development*This blog was co-authored by Barbara Seligman, consultant to CGD In his recently released book, Fatal Misconceptions: The Struggle to Control World Population, Matthew Connelly, an associate professor of history at Columbia, tells a cautionary tale about the arrogance that marked the origins and early history of international ‘population control’ programs. Of the many topics on which we could post, we focus here on his conclusions about the role of organized family planning programs in helping to reduce fertility rates. Professor Connelly repeats the assertion that family planning efforts explain “less than five percent of fertility levels in developing countries” (p.338). The reader might unwittingly conclude that there is widespread agreement regarding the “five percent” attribution, which is certainly not the case. Here we take a closer look at the analysis where this attribution first appeared, and at a more recent study using “gold standard” data from a controlled experiment that suggests the benefits of organized family planning efforts are significant and go well beyond ‘births averted.’ 1994, the year of the landmark 4th International Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo, marked a shift away from a narrow view of curbing rapid population growth through organized family planning efforts to a more holistic reproductive health approach. That year economist Lant Pritchett, then with the World Bank and now at Harvard and a Senior non-resident Fellow at the Center, published results of a cross-national study in which he concluded that only five to 10 percent of differences in fertility levels across countries could be attributed to family planning programs or lack of access to contraceptives. Pritchett attributed the vast majority of the difference in fertility levels to demand factors, which he maintained were not affected by contraceptive supply. In repeating this assertion without further discussion Connelly may lead some readers to conclude that in spite of billions of dollars of cumulative investment (and the indignities and physical harm it sometimes caused), international family planning assistance didn’t make a difference in slowing fertility and curbing population growth rates. 1 Comment »Population (Still) MattersFebruary 25, 2008Posted by Rachel Nugent in HIV/AIDS & Infectious Diseases, Pharmaceuticals & Health Products Tags: Demographics and DevelopmentIn an op-ed for the New York Times, Professor Jared Diamond points to consumption differentials between rich and poor countries as the factor responsible for our global sustainability crisis. Diamond says we are running out of resources, and will do so all the faster as developing countries try to “catch up” with rich country consumption levels. While this is true, it is bewildering that Diamond dismisses population as a factor in the path toward global unsustainability, as well as potentially a policy lever for slowing our progression down that path. Diamond says, “The population especially of the developing world is growing, and some people remain fixated on this. They note that populations of countries like Kenya are growing rapidly, and they say that’s a big problem. Yes, it is a problem for Kenya’s more than 30 million people, but it’s not a burden on the whole world, because Kenyans consume so little.” He further says we should be concerned about what happens when Kenyans (and other developing world people) achieve developed country consumption levels, and all of us – rich and poor countries alike – should seek ways to improve quality of life with sustainable consumption levels. Population does not get another mention. 3 Comments »
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