Print
Share
Nailing Down the Slippery Numbers on U.S. Aid to Pakistan
May 6, 2011
With all the questions swirling around the U.S. aid program in Pakistan this week, one very simple one is worth asking. How much economic aid did the U.S. spend in Pakistan last year? Was it, as Pakistani Finance Minister Hafeez Shaikh stated in April, under $300 million? Was it, as the Government Accountability Office cited in a February report, $179.5 million? Was it, as USAID’s mission director in Pakistan Andrew Sisson told the New York Times earlier this week, more than $1 billion?
Of course, what’s most important isn’t how much money the United States is spending—it’s whether the aid is achieving results (that answer too is elusive, a whole different story). But still, this is a number worth getting straight. The lack of clarity on the U.S. aid program translates into a sense among Pakistanis that very little at all has been done, and undermines public faith in the United States’ intentions. (Part of the reason we’ve been calling for more transparency for over a year). By all accounts, the aid program has in fact taken time to get off the ground. But whatever the real spending number is, it can’t possibly be as bad as what the Pakistani public thinks it is.
Now, you wouldn’t think it would be that hard to get one clear number—we’re talking cold, hard data here, figures people are paid to track and check fulltime. So back in February, I contacted USAID to get an answer to this question once and for all. I had no idea about the can of worms I was opening. More than two months, two dozen emails and phone calls, and a face-to-face meeting with the Pakistan budget team later, we finally had the number. USAID’s Pakistan office disbursed $676.46 million in the 2010 fiscal year (data for 2005-2010 in chart).
That number does not include all civilian aid to Pakistan—notably, it’s missing most of the emergency relief for Pakistan’s historic floods. Luckily, that humanitarian relief has been fairly well-documented. On the USAID website, you can find a trove of fact sheets on how much emergency aid has been provided and what it’s done. I added in the numbers from the final fact sheet of the 2010 fiscal year, which reports precisely $250,803,854 in USAID spending that’s not included in the Pakistan office number.
Put those together, and my number for total development and humanitarian aid disbursed by USAID in the 2010 fiscal year is… $927,264,178. And I’m sticking to it!***
Trying to nail down this topline number is a fun exercise, but (short of results metrics) the numbers that would be really useful are disaggregated data on what this money has been spent for. With those numbers, places like CGD and our counterparts in Pakistan could begin to tell the really important stories—explaining which sectors are easier to spend money on in Pakistan (and why), providing context on cases where money needs to sit on the books for months or years (as is often the case with major infrastructure projects), and generally filling in gaps in the public’s and Congress’ understanding of what the U.S. aid program in Pakistan is doing. As one example, without more detailed numbers, I have no way of explaining what appears at first blush to be an accumulated backlog of $2.2 billion in undisbursed aid.
We’re talking to USAID about getting disaggregated data. But perhaps the most worrisome thing I learned from two months of trying to get an answer to the disbursement question is this: the biggest reason USAID doesn’t share better information on their spending in Pakistan is because they simply don’t know. Answering basic questions requires a herculean slog through convoluted databases, twisted in knots from repeated reprogramming and other budget tricks. We were told that a new piece of software is on its way that will change that soon, but as it stands, the United States lacks the ability to answer basic questions about what its signature aid program in Pakistan is doing.
***Unless, of course, someone from the U.S. government wants to share more detailed numbers that show what I’ve missed. I already know my number is missing data on the counternarcotics, law-enforcement, and refugee programs that the State Department (not USAID) manages. I have not even touched the subject of military aid and reimbursements, which easily outweigh civilian aid, and which Pakistan’s government is relying on to fill a broader fiscal deficit.
EDIT (May 7): I noticed that I accidentally used a rounded off figure in adding up the full FY2010 number. I’ve updated with the complete number– thus adding $324 to the total.
Possibly Related Posts
- Enhancing the Transparency of U.S. Aid to Pakistan: It Starts with a Click
- Pakistan Aid Facts
- How Do We Know if Pakistan Is Making Development Progress?
15 Responses to “Nailing Down the Slippery Numbers on U.S. Aid to Pakistan”
Post a Comment
We value frank and constructive exchanges and encourage you to use your real name in your comments.
May 6th, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Terrific piece, Wren. I am grateful for your perseverance in tracking down these numbers, and your smarts in making sense of them.
May 6th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
this is why we need a hundred wikileaks …
May 6th, 2011 at 7:31 pm
One more thing to chew on– the wide range of estimates I cite in the first paragraph *could all be correct*, at least as originally presented. They all measure slightly different things. The GAO number is for money appropriated in the FY2010 budget and disbursed by the end of the 2010 calendar year. Minister Shaikh, I would guess, is thinking of how much U.S. money has been transferred to the Pakistani government’s coffers. And Andy Sisson is adding up all disbursements from money appropriated in any year (similar to what I did, but perhaps extended to the end of the 2010 calendar year).
These nuances generally get stripped out when people cite these figures (in Pakistan or here in the USA), leaving nothing but serious confusion.
Not to beat a dead horse, but with more detailed information on disbursements, we could clear up the confusion and get everyone on the same page at least with regards to what’s been done, if not what should be done.
May 9th, 2011 at 8:58 am
This is a huge amount spending by USAID. The big budget money is known to us by this article. Pakistan must make a proper use of it. Thank you Wren Elhai.
May 9th, 2011 at 7:19 pm
You are asking the wrong question. If we had known OBLs where abouts in 2006 and killed him, how much would the US Government saved by not further engaging in Afghanistan? How many lives would have been saved? How many wounded would have been avoided?
Off the top of my head, 1,5T, 900 dead and 20,000 wounded. Of course, this is still counting.
Finally, USAID money is simply being creamed off by the elites and the ISI. Send in real accountants and get out money back.
May 10th, 2011 at 5:38 am
Thanks, as a Pakistani economist, I love it.
One question: USAid spends $1 Billion in Pakistan alone, but doesn’t bother to buy an adequate accounting software that probably costs less than $1000. Seems like an intentional blunder to me, can’t imagine USAid ‘overlooking’ such a basic step.
May 10th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
it would be helpful to enlarge your enquiries to cover disbursements made to UScontractors for their services,differentiating between amounts spent in Pakistan and those expended in the US. my hunch is that a fairly significant fraction– maybe as high as 15-20 perect never reaches Pakistan.
May 11th, 2011 at 11:05 pm
[...] Source: http://blogs.cgdev.org/mca-monitor/2011/05/nailing-down-the-slippery-numbers-on-u-s-aid-to-pakistan…. [...]
May 15th, 2011 at 10:36 pm
US Funding assistance for Pakistan has totaled more than $20 billion from 2002 to-date, with 69% of the funding utilized for security and military purposes; an additional 23% for economic development; leaving less than 8% going to disaster relief, health, human rights, democracy programs, refugee assistance etc…
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf
May 16th, 2011 at 5:55 am
wow. Thanks Mr. Cummings. I’m noticing that $8.9B are CSF payments, which is not actually aid, rather a reimbursement of cost that Pakistan initially paid for on behalf of the USA.
So, $12B in a decade. Quite a cheap deal to get the Pakistanis do the work especially when you compare it to American spending in Afghanistan which was $60B in 2009 and almost $105B in 2010, not to mention the 2500 coalition troops that died as well, of which 1573 were American at last count.
(http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf pg19), (http://icasualties.org/oef/)
May 16th, 2011 at 9:49 am
Brian– that’s a good point to make clear. By any measure, military aid and reimbursements in Pakistan outweigh the development aid. (And direct spending by the U.S. intelligence services and military may be even greater).
Understand, though, that while the CRS chart you and I linked to is a valuable source, it is tracking budget numbers, not what has actually been spent. It should be clear from the post that the two are not always equivalent.
May 17th, 2011 at 5:19 pm
[...] Nailing Down the Slippery Numbers on U.S. Aid to Pakistan by @welhai [...]
June 6th, 2011 at 5:12 am
Hi! Great work. However, I’d like to point out that the difference in figures you are showing are actually a result of your misinterpreting the sources. The amount indicated USAID mission director in Pakistan Sisson is perfectly in line with Pakistan Finance Minister Hafeez Shaikh’s. Shaikh said that under $300 million had been spent. And Sisson said the amount to be over $200 million, according the NYT article you cited. The $1 billion of which he spoke is actually referring to amount spent from previously unused funds.
Finally, I noticed you are not differentiating between funds committed/disbursed and funds actually spent. They dont mean the same thing. It is perfectly possible for the amount actually spent to be less than the amount disbursed towards a specific project or sector…
Here is what the NYT article actually reported that Sisson said:
“The United States Agency for International Development’s director for Pakistan, Andrew B. Sisson, defended the pace of spending. “This is a long-term enterprise, and building that takes time, and we’re doing that,” he said. The amount spent on projects from the $1.5 billion, he said, has risen to more than $200 million.
“More than $1 billion in American aid was actually spent by U.S.A.I.D. in Pakistan last year from previously unused funds, Mr. Sisson said, including $500 million for flood victims.”
June 24th, 2011 at 3:48 am
Money is investing or spending for Pakistan. But day by day their violence and bomb attack has been increased. How they could get rid of it. They should overcome it by themselves. This post was really important to make cleared.
August 20th, 2011 at 4:37 am
This very helpful for Pakistan. present situation of is very pathetic.They fall in economic crises . So their need this help. Thanks for the news.