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USAID Saw It Coming, but Fighting Famine Is Still Not Easy
August 3, 2011
USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) saw this coming a long way off. Sifting through their archive of food security updates, there are myriad warnings of drought and an impending food security crisis. As early as August 2010, FEWS NET predicted “below-normal rains… due to a developing La Niña event” and an executive brief warned of its potential to “undermine recent food security gains.” These warnings quickly turned dire: “In areas where limited humanitarian assistance is expected (i.e. south and central Somalia), pastoral households are likely to become extremely food insecure.”
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Fast forward two dry ‘rainy seasons’ and one declaration of famine later, and people are wondering why the international community didn’t see this coming. The reality is that USAID has been preparing for this crisis for nearly a year, has already delivered 360,000 metric tons of food assistance to the Horn of Africa (much of it pre-positioned), and has provided $459 million of assistance thus far in FY2011. In July, the Horn of Africa Drought Task Force was formed to monitor conditions and identify humanitarian needs, and a Disaster Assistance Response Team was established in Nairobi and Addis Ababa – supported by a Response Management Team in Washington – to coordinate government-wide relief efforts.
So if the crisis was detected very early on and the U.S. has been active in its response, why is there famine in southern Somalia? While the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia blames a variety of factors ranging from crops failure to limitations on humanitarian access, Charles Kenny is much more direct in his assessment: “In order to ensure widespread death by starvation, a governing authority must make a conscious decision: it must actively exercise the power to take food from producers who need it or deny food assistance to victims.” Owen Barder makes a similar argument in saying famine is caused by poverty, the failure of markets, or the failure of government. Evidence that drought is not sufficient to cause famine can be gleaned by just looking at a map of the region; conditions are much better even in Ethiopia than they are just across the border in Somalia.
So while development aid and humanitarian assistance have alleviated the situation somewhat in neighboring Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti, Somalia remains in a dire situation due to limited access and instability. Furthermore, the U.S. has severely limited its foreign assistance to Somalia since 2009 due to a new rule from Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
Despite this restriction, the U.S. has pledged additional aid to Somalia provided it is directed to areas not under the control of al-Shabaab. Unfortunately, both famine areas in Somalia are controlled by al-Shabaab, making it impossible for this aid to reach the worst affected populations. Additionally, consistent with the OFAC rule, the aid is contingent on the WFP being able to show that it will not materially benefit al-Shabaab and that there is “unfettered access” for the implementing agency. Thus, the policy decision becomes a ‘catch-22’: either provide assistance to the famine areas with little or no assurance that it will not be ‘taxed’ by al-Shabaab or do not provide assistance to the very worst off. The Obama Administration appears to be moving towards the former policy option:
“[W]e are seeking to reassure our humanitarian assistance partners, implementing partners, that they need not fear prosecution under OFAC regulations as long as they are engaged in good-faith efforts to deliver food to people in need… the concern about diversion to al-Shabaab I think has made some humanitarian assistance organizations feel a bit constrained, and we’re trying to help them not feel constrained, trying to help them move the food to where it’s most desperately needed.”
This recent policy decision appears to be a calculated risk that will hopefully have substantial benefits.
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5 Responses to “USAID Saw It Coming, but Fighting Famine Is Still Not Easy”
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August 9th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Although Somaliland is not mentioned, it should have been. It is the large stressed area in yellow, just below Djibouti on the map above. It is completely different than the former Somalia. Unlike other areas along the 1500 mile coastline, Berbera, its major port has links into the other regions of the Somali speaking lands and landlocked Ethiopia. It is positioned to make a real difference on the HOA. Infrastructure improvements to the port and to the airport in Berbera can make a difference now and for years to come. We should recognize Somaliland and get on with the aid.
August 10th, 2011 at 6:27 pm
It is imperative that the entire world can easily be controlled by the USA without a gun or weapons as they have put. United States has every single human being all over the world, which is a smart way if they are to use their intellegency. Todays world does not need a gun but simple a round peaceful methodology of dealing with people. Why are Somali’s going back to explode themselves with explosives. These are the guys if the USA has to use them carefully the problem of Somali wouldnt have reach to such point. People can be used to solve a problem but greed is one of the biggest problem USA government is un aware of. Old method of dealing with things does not work today. An example can be Obama running back to Allan Green Span former treasury to revatalize the econmu. The owrld is changing every single day therefore the theory of Allan Green Span even if Former president Clinton with good repeatation of economy will not work. Every day has its own days unfortunately old Senators like John Mcain warming the chairs in DC only for the personal interest.
August 11th, 2011 at 2:12 am
The ongoing tragedy in Somalia is man made.
1) Uncontrolled population growth.
2) Exploitative agriculture rendering the soil infertile.
August 26th, 2011 at 6:17 pm
This article talks about the same issues and was published in July, and is titled: Here we go again: famine in the Horn of Africa.
Link: http://www.odihpn.org/report.asp?id=3219
September 1st, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Famines result from poor governance (or perverse governance).
Like the British (famine inducers in Ireland and the sub-continent) and the Enigma machine, information is useful when decision makers can act on it. Overtime, USAID has performed an outstanding service by setting up extremely valuable information channels. But the major cuts suffered by staff and budgets hampers their capacity to act upon reliable information in order to cope with the crises accurately predicted.
Besides the millions affected by the drought there –and by price spikes caused in part by the drought in the Southern US, another victim might be the increasing number of excellent USAID officials who get frustrated by their imposed impotence. And this will get worse.
Unfortunately, neither the global nor the local community have found a formula which would allow the penalization of corrupt political leaders while providing sustenance to the blighted population. In development programs one can explicitly lay down rule: bad governance (e.g. Nigeria, Chad, Equatorial Guinea) should trigger a halt to U.S. assistance. But dying children and vulnerable populations will not be around by the time lousy governments improve.